Editorial: Cautious approach

The RBI’s stance suggests a continued focus on price stability over immediate rate cuts, given recent history of rate hikes

The Reserve Bank of India’s decision to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 6.50% should not come as a surprise, given the inflation scenario. In its first meeting after the central budget, the six-member monetary policy committee (MPC) opted to continue a cautious approach, citing food inflation risks amid the ongoing economic uncertainties.

This is the ninth consecutive time the central bank has opted for stability in its monetary policy. It must be pointed out that the battle against inflation is far from over. Inflation remains above the RBI’s target range. The central bank’s commitment to bringing inflation down to its 4 per cent target continues to face challenges due to the ongoing food inflation and other economic factors.

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Those rooting for a cut in the interest rates must bear in mind that the RBI’s primary goal is to maintain stable inflation which is critical for sustainable growth. While monetary tightening is negative for the short term, it is important to keep inflation under control which in turn facilitates long-term growth.

The RBI is expected to keenly observe how the inflation scenario pans out in the coming months. Any easing of monetary policy would occur only when average retail price inflation approaches the RBI’s target of 4 per cent. Headline inflation, after remaining steady at 4.8 per cent in April and May 2024, increased to 5.1 per cent in June, primarily driven by the food component, which remains stubborn. With growth holding up — the central bank expects the economy to grow at 7.2 per cent this year — it provides the MPC the policy space to focus on inflation.

With interest rates staying steady, it is hoped that EMIs will remain manageable for homeowners. It is clear that rate cut is not on the priority list of the RBI as it continues to bat for patience. The domestic inflation is slowly but steadily trending towards the 4 per cent target. In addition, global volatility, and geo-politics add to the challenges that keep the central bank on watch. It cannot afford the slightest error of judgement.

The RBI’s stance suggests a continued focus on price stability over immediate rate cuts, given the recent history of rate hikes and the current economic climate. In most major economies, central banks have either begun to cut interest rates or are on the cusp of doing so. In June, the European Central bank cut interest rates, followed by the Bank of England. The US Federal Reserve recently indicated the possibility of cutting rates in its September meeting. The next MPC meeting is slated for October.

With the harvesting of crops, the prices could begin to ease. Global food prices, as seen through the FAO food price index, have already eased in July. This could provide the MPC more clarity on the path of food inflation, which would lead to greater certainty on the trajectory of interest rates.