Editorial: Challenging times ahead

The East-West face-off over Ukraine has reached dangerous levels following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s provocative move to recognise the independence of the two restive regions — Donetsk and Luhansk — in Eastern Ukraine and a strong response from the western nations in the form of sanctions. This is by far the most intense confrontation since […]

The East-West face-off over Ukraine has reached dangerous levels following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s provocative move to recognise the independence of the two restive regions — Donetsk and Luhansk — in Eastern Ukraine and a strong response from the western nations in the form of sanctions. This is by far the most intense confrontation since the collapse of the Soviet union and could have far-reaching implications for the global economy and trade. For India, which has been banking on a peaceful resolution of the crisis through diplomatic negotiations, the challenges are quite daunting. It has to strike a delicate balance between its historical friendship with Russia and the growing strategic ties with the United States while constantly fending off the threats from China. So far, New Delhi has taken a neutral stand on the Ukraine crisis and couched its statements in safe phrases, without having to condemn Moscow’s aggression. However, as the situation escalates further, India will no longer have the luxury of a neutral approach. Moscow’s actions are becoming increasingly indefensible. India cannot remain silent if Russian troops invade Ukraine while taking a tough stand on China’s territorial expansionism. The Russian lawmakers have given Putin permission to use military force outside the country — a move that is being interpreted in the West as a precursor to an attack on Ukraine. Already, Russia has dispatched what it called ‘peace-keeping forces’ to Luhansk and Donetsk after recognising their independence. These industrialised regions in eastern Ukraine had declared themselves independent of Ukraine in 2014, encouraged by Russia’s annexation of Crimea, but had remained unrecognised by Moscow and the international community.

India finds its role in the United Nations Security Council being curtailed as war clouds loom large over Ukraine. As a member of the UNSC, India has been striving to play a key role in ensuring peace, security and stability in the world. In the case of Ukraine, the permanent members of the council are threatening to go to war with each other, with the UK, US, France on one side, and Russia supported by China on the other. This takes matters totally out of the hands of the UNSC, making it virtually redundant. In the event of a full-blown war erupting in the region, the European nations will prefer to toe the American line rather than continuing to pin hopes on peaceful negotiations. This reduces the efficacy of India’s European initiative. The escalation of the situation will impact the rest of the world as oil prices are already touching $100 a barrel and most major economies, including India, are facing high inflation and struggling to recover from the pandemic. Moreover, India will be faced with tough choices on defence supplies from Russia with the US getting ready to impose sanctions. Curtailing of defence supplies will impact India’s ability to respond to China’s aggression.

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