Editorial: The Capital battle

Raising I-T exemption threshold has clear political undertones, especially in a city where the middle class dominates — nearly 67% of Delhi is middle-class against 31% nationally — the voter base

As the national capital, Delhi attracts outsized attention and dominates the country’s political narrative despite not being a full-fledged State. As voters turned up to exercise their franchise for the Assembly polls, the key question being asked in political circles is whether the income tax relief announced in the Union Budget will have a decisive impact on the outcome. Raising the tax exemption threshold to Rs 12 lakh has clear political undertones, especially in a city where the middle class dominates — nearly 67% of Delhi is middle class against 31% nationally — the voter base. In the high-stakes political battle, the BJP is keen to dethrone the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) through a blend of promises designed to woo the middle class. In the past decade, the AAP has cultivated its appeal among this group through subsidised utilities, healthcare initiatives and free public transport for women. These policies, often dismissed as mere populism by critics, have had tangible benefits for families managing rising costs in an expensive metropolis. At the same time, there has been growing frustration over governance issues such as deteriorating infrastructure, pollution and urban congestion. These factors have created an opening for the BJP, which has positioned itself as a more competent administrator while highlighting inefficiencies in AAP’s governance and also the advantages of electing a ‘double-engine sarkar’. No doubt, it is a do-or-die battle for Arvind Kejriwal whose initial image of a clean politician has taken a beating in recent years.

The support of women voters contributed significantly to his stupendous success both in 2015 and 2020, but it remains to be seen how much of this support base is intact. The AAP’s prospects also depend on the performance of the Congress, which does not seem to be in the reckoning in most seats. It had a vote share of 4.63 per cent in 2020 in the seats it contested. A change in its vote share could indirectly shape the final outcome by redistributing seats between the two main contenders. In all probability, the grand old party is expected to dent the AAP’s traditional support among Muslims and Dalits, thereby indirectly helping the BJP. The city has long been a battleground between two competing leadership styles — AAP’s welfare-driven governance and BJP’s nationalistic and growth-oriented narrative. While tax cuts may generate goodwill for the BJP, it is tough to hazard a guess as to how far they will be able to outweigh deeper political convictions. The politics of Delhi is often shaped by the dominating narratives in the neighbouring States. After suffering a setback in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the saffron party has managed to regain its earlier confidence with wins in Haryana and Maharashtra. The campaign narrative in Delhi was dominated by freebies as key contenders vied with one another to woo the electorate with handouts.

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