Gold’s 2025 rally among steepest since 1970s, led by Asia

Gold prices have surged over 50 per cent in 2025, hitting USD 4,000, driven by Asian demand, central bank purchases, and safe-haven buying. Slower mine output and strong domestic imports in India and China are fueling the steepest rally since the 1970s

New Delhi: The surge in gold prices in 2025 ranks among the steepest since the 1970s, rivalling the bull runs of 1979–80, 2010–11, and 2020. However, unlike earlier cycles driven by Western crises, this rally is Asia-led, underpinned by reserve diversification and official-sector demand, data from a report showed on Thursday.

Gold’s dazzling rally this year has captivated global markets — a rare and spectacular ascent that has seen prices surge over 50 per cent year-to-date, breaching $4,000 on COMEX and touching Rs 1,20,000 domestically.

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The precious metal has clocked over 35 new record highs this year, as investors embrace tangible assets amid global uncertainty. Silver too has mirrored gold’s brilliance, soaring over 60 per cent YTD across exchanges, Motilal Oswal Financial Services said in its report.

What began as a cautious start to the year has turned into a full-fledged super cycle, driven by capital rotation from bonds and riskier assets into safe havens. The rally in precious metals has been underpinned by a steady dollar index below 100 and rupee appreciation, both of which have supported domestic prices.

“Markets are now pricing in a 70 per cent probability of US Federal Reserve rate cuts in October and December, amid weaker US labour data and rising fiscal concerns,” the report noted.

Political uncertainty in Japan following the election of fiscal dove Sanae Takaichi has added to global safe-haven demand, while China’s bid to become a global gold custodian is bolstering structural support.

“Gold’s stellar rally reflects a confluence of macro shifts — from fiscal uncertainty and softer dollar to strategic diversification by central banks. Asia is emerging as the epicentre of this new monetary alignment,” said Manav Modi, Analyst, Commodities and Currencies, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.

Meanwhile, global mine output has stayed largely static in 2025, constrained by ore-grade decline, environmental regulations, and rising operational costs. However, recycling has increased modestly but remains below past bull-market levels.

In contrast, demand has been robust — led by China, India, Turkey, and the Middle East, where currency weakness and inflation have driven record safe-haven buying. According to the report, global Gold ETF holdings crossed over 450 tonnes as it has seen its strongest inflow since 2020. The Central Bank has purchased over 600 tonnes in the first nine months of the year.

Sealing the opportunity, India imported 300 tonnes of gold and 3,000 tonnes of silver by Q3 2025, the report noted.