Telangana may get normal rainfall despite weak monsoon forecast

Despite a below normal monsoon forecast for India, IMD indicates that Telangana and other South Indian states may receive normal to above-normal rainfall. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole could further boost late-season rains in the region.

Hyderabad: While the overall performance of the South West Monsoon-2026 is forecast to be ‘below normal’ for the country, Telangana and other South Indian states might escape the brunt of deficit rainfall, the Long Range Forecast (LRF) released by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday indicated.

In a silver lining for the region, the IMD’s probabilistic spatial data indicates that the South Peninsular India region, including Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Kerala, shows a stronger signal for normal to above-normal rainfall.

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The IMD report says that while emerging El Nino conditions in the equatorial Pacific typically suppress rainfall across Central and North India, a ‘buffer’ is expected for the South Indian states.

A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is forecast to develop towards the end of the monsoon season, which could trigger intense late-season spells across Telangana and neighbouring states.

The IMD will issue a more granular, second-stage update in the last week of May, providing specific spatial distribution for the monsoon’s onset in June.