Opinion: End of Britain-China golden era

Their short-lived romance is coming to an end and the UK needs to move on, but the question remains, how?

By Ajay Gokul S

Hyderabad: Everyone saw it coming. After all, the UK and China never saw eye to eye. Britain’s one-sided and unrequited love (or in this instance trade deficit) definitely blinded its China strategy. The revolving door of 10 Downing Street may make David Cameron’s premiership appear old but just in 2015, he doggedly played cupid for the UK and China. However, his proclamation of a ‘golden era’ seems to have hardly lasted a decade. Rishi Sunak used his first major foreign policy speech to conclusively put an end to it.

Despite the Conservatives being in power for more than ten years, the UK’s China policy has been beset with massive inconsistencies. It began with Cameron who courted and wooed China to no end, even in the face of backlash and warnings. Xi was accorded a red-carpet welcome to the UK. From being hosted by the Queen at state banquets in Buckingham Palace to downing pints at a pub in Buckinghamshire, he revelled in absolute British affection. The UK-China relationship was touted as one for ‘long-term prosperity’ with Xi even addressing both houses of Parliament.

Tit for Tat

Fast forward to 2022 and several of those very parliamentarians are now banned in China for commenting on the treatment of Uyghurs in Xinjiang. In retaliation, the Chinese Ambassador was banned from viewing the Queen’s coffin in Westminster Abbey this year and Xi was a no-show at the high-profile funeral. The UK’s spy chief designated China as a ‘threat’ in October. The head of MI5, the UK’s intelligence agency, and his American counterpart went further in calling China the ‘biggest long-term threat’ to economic and national security. So how did it come to this? This swift and so public breakdown of a relationship?

To be fair, it was in the making for a few years. When Theresa May was Home Secretary under Cameron, she infamously dressed up in an all-red ensemble to welcome Xi during his UK state visit. She, however, didn’t seem to follow it through with the same enthusiasm. The UK-China relationship slumped during her premiership. She was much too preoccupied with the Brexit deal debacle that ultimately culminated in her resignation.

Filp-flops

Then entered Boris Johnson, who officially categorised China as a ‘systemic competitor’. The relationship soured after Beijing imposed a security law on Britain’s former colony, Hong Kong. The special privileges it enjoys, separate from mainland China, are now under increased and severe restrictions. After some assertive nudging from Trump, Boris also banned Huawei. The pandemic was the last straw.

Boris’ successor and Britain’s shortest-serving Prime Minister, Liz Truss, hastily indicated her desire to designate China as an outright ‘threat’. But much of her decisions were erratic and informed by bellicose political rhetoric. However, the latest entrant, Rishi Sunak, has stopped short of calling China a threat and has adopted a more mellowed stance mirroring Boris’ policies.

These continued flip-flops shed light on how the UK has been caught between a rock and hard place in trying to manage its China strategy. On one hand, it has been dealing with Brexit. To an island leaving a large and well-established trading bloc, China has the potential to provide economic solace. But on the other hand, the UK has had to come to terms with its diminished global standing and an increasingly aggressive China. Geopolitically, it is stuck in an awkward position between the US and China, both vying for hegemonic supremacy. The increasingly hard-line American attitude towards China has split the world between both camps. So, what is the way ahead?

Trade Deficit

The UK needs to stop tiptoeing behind American foreign policy. Rishi Sunak, in his speech, rightly called the bluff on the West’s formula that championed increased trade with China as a means of democratising it. He branded the trade strategy for bringing social and political reform in China as a ‘naïve idea’. In fact, it has been quite the reverse. For Britain, there now exists a huge deficit in China’s favour that makes the former heavily dependent on the latter. Any further expansion of this deficit would only give China even more leverage. If anything, increased trade with China has solidified the Communist Party’s grip on power.

Britain needs a hard reckoning of its present role and influence in the world. Having exited the membership of the European Common Market, the UK no longer wields the same leverage when negotiating with both the US and China. Britain must embrace the newfound and hard-fought independence that Brexit has provided it, to establish a coherent foreign policy. At the G20 Conference in Bali, Rishi Sunak’s meeting with Xi had to be cancelled and when probed on his position on China, he was confused between ‘threat’ and ‘systemic challenge’. Back home from the summit, his foreign policy speech at the Lord Mayor’s banquet has provided welcome clarity.

However, Rishi Sunak has also drawn the ire of several lawmakers from both within his party and the opposition for not calling China a threat. Some hardliners even drew parallels to the UK’s 1930s appeasement approach to Nazi Germany. However, amidst a war on European soil, soaring energy bills and a cost-of-living crisis, Rishi Sunak’s approach to China seems measured and grounded in practical reality. How his words are going to be reflected in his actions is still unknown. The Integrated Review of security and foreign policy in 2023 will set out more specificities. But one thing is certain, the short-lived romance between Britain and China is coming to an end. The UK needs to move on, but the question remains, how?

(The author is Founder & President of Global Madras, a student-led think tank based in Tamil Nadu)