Opinion: Game in Indian Ocean

Abiding by international rules gives India an upper hand as against the violent and dominant ways of China

By Hanan Salim, Dr Karamala Areesh Kumar

The grand game of geopolitics can be metaphorically linked to chess, where every move is met with a counter, each side locked in an endless dance of strategy and response as though destined to a precarious draw. Somehow the two power blocs of Asia are sucked into this infinite game of chess.

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The rivalry between India and China dates back to the 1950s and continues to date. The conflict was resisted from leaking through due to the many trade, military and economic relations between the two countries. As China’s thirst for dominance and influence grew, the relations between the two nations became rather strained. The dispute between India and China over the Indian Ocean is an example.

The Indian Ocean is rich in resources, with 35% gas wealth, almost 40% gold, 60% uranium and two-thirds of world petroleum reserves. In 2004, the Pentagon submitted a report to the Office of Net Assessment at the US Department of Defence to recognise China’s maritime strategy, coining the term ‘String of Pearls.’

String of Pearls

Today, China’s military, trade and maritime ties, called the String of Pearls, extend from mainland China to the South of Port Sudan, backing ports in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Myanmar and Bangladesh, enclosing the Indian peninsula in a dilemma. They set up their first port in Djibouti, which is close to the entrance of the Red Sea and is a geopolitical hotspot. This position of China gives access to three main straits that run along the Persian region. The Bab-el-Mandeb connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, carrying half of China’s oil imports; 25% of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, between the Gulf and Oman, and the busiest strait, the Strait of Malacca, carries goods from Persian importers to Asian markets.

 

Lack of trust from other nations in India has made its strategies look weak when compared to China’s extensive resources

 

By setting up a port in Pakistan’s Gwadar, China gained a strategic location connecting it to the West. In 2017, China entered into a private-public partnership with Sri Lanka, with 70% of its ports leased to the former. Sri Lanka received financial and technical support, but it got trapped in debt. The Chinese setting up their army base on the island southwest of India-Maldives is a significant concern to India.

Necklace of Diamond

As China strategically encircled India, India launched its ‘Necklace of Diamond’ strategy. In 2015, India took over the Assumption Islands in the Seychelles of the African continent to counter the Djibouti and Kenya ports of China. Lying north of the Mozambique Channel, the Assumption Islands are a crucial maritime and trade location. In 2016, India invested $8 billion in the Chabahar port of Iran as an answer to China setting up a port in Gwadar. It also gave them access to the north-south corridor connecting Moscow to Mumbai.

The Duqm port in Oman lies between China’s routes, giving India the upper hand as crude oil is imported from the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. The Sabang port in Indonesia offers India access to Southeast Asia. The port sees 30% of global sea trade while 80% of China’s oil is imported through this sea line.

In 2018, India and Singapore signed a bilateral agreement for the Changi naval base lying adjacent to the conflictual South China Sea. Besides maritime strategies, India maintained a sound military strategy through arms sales — it has sold BrahMos supersonic missiles to the Philippines and promised them to Vietnam as well. India also collaborated with Japan to create the Asia-Africa Growth Corridor, or AAGC, to enhance innovative growth and sustainability and combat China’s growing influence.

The alliance between India, Japan, the US and Australia in the QUAD is critical in the Indo-Pacific route to free from China’s military influence. India gave Mongolia a $1-billion loan using its credit line to build its first oil refinery. This will help Mongolia decrease its oil dependence on Russia and increase its GDP by 10%. India also maintains a good relationship with the five central Asian countries — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan — rich in Uranium, minerals and hydrocarbons with millions of consumers. This relation aims to increase international ties and expand the naval bases. India also maintains diplomatic relations with all of China’s neighbours.

Grand Chessboard

This game of dominance and influence in the Indian Ocean between India and China is significant in the global political order. Through the String of Pearl strategy, China mainly opts for maritime and military access whereas through the Necklace of Diamond, India counters this with a mix of strategies, including maritime, alliances, military and building partnerships with key nations. India’s approach to collaboration, mutual respect and abiding by the international law and order gives it an upper hand as against the violent and dominant ways of China. However, lack of trust from other nations in India has made its strategies look weak as compared to China’s extensive resources. China’s investment of $225 billion in the Belt and Road initiative compared to India’s relatively modest approach poses a resource gap.

To overcome these hurdles, India should address its internal issues, such as economic growth and political instability, and modernise its military and maritime strategies on an urgent basis. Nevertheless, by leveraging its geographic position and soft power, India can be a good rival to China. Can both nations strive to cooperate and diplomatically resolve this dilemma?

 

(Hanan Salim is Research Scholar and Dr Karamala Areesh Kumar is Head, Department of International Relations, Peace and Public Policy, St Joseph’s University, Bengaluru)