Editorial: Dealing with Trump 2.0

Given the wild nature of his public statements, it is safe to assume that Trump 2.0 can have a profound impact on India, particularly in matters of trade and tariffs

Like the rest of the world, India too is awaiting the second term of Donald Trump’s presidency with a sense of trepidation. Known for his maverick ways and maximalist positions, Trump can be quite unpredictable and unorthodox in terms of policy formulations. Given the wild nature of his public statements, it is safe to assume that Trump 2.0 can have a profound impact on India, particularly in matters of trade and tariffs. Of immediate concern is how the Trump administration would act on the issue of American sanctions on Russia’s oil trade. Since India has benefited from cheap oil imports from Russia, the sweeping sanctions on Russian oil producers and vessels present a significant challenge for the country’s energy landscape. With as many as 183 Russian tankers being placed under sanctions, India’s imports could take a big hit as the new measures would effectively restrict the entry of oil tankers at Indian ports. New Delhi would anxiously wait for the incoming Trump administration’s stance on the sanctions and how seriously it implements them in the coming months. There is hope in diplomatic circles that the Trump administration would be more transactional in its approach to bilateral matters than being guided by ideological rigidity. The Kremlin has already said that the US sanctions could destabilise global markets. As one of the largest buyers of Russian crude alongside China, India must recalibrate its strategy to ensure energy security without compromising its economic stability or diplomatic relationships. For a country like India, where energy costs directly impact the broader economy, this development could pose significant fiscal challenges.

Over the past year, India has benefited from the discounted imports, with Russian crude accounting for 36% of the country’s imports. However, restrictions on shipping and insurance will reduce the availability of Russian oil, forcing Indian refiners to turn to alternative sources such as West Asia and Africa. Long accustomed to favourable terms from Russian suppliers, Indian refiners must now contend with higher costs and tighter margins. The ripple effect will likely be felt across industries, affecting transportation, manufacturing, and even agricultural sectors dependent on fuel. While these immediate challenges loom large, the situation also presents an opportunity for India to reassess and diversify its energy portfolio. Strengthening ties with West Asian suppliers and exploring partnerships in Africa can provide some respite. However, the long-term focus must shift toward reducing dependence on imported oil. Accelerating investments in renewable energy, domestic exploration and biofuels can help mitigate future risks. For now, the focus must remain on ensuring stable supplies, managing costs and protecting the broader economy from external shocks. This is not just a test of India’s energy resilience but of its ability to navigate an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape. Being the world’s third-largest consumer of crude oil, India depends on imports to meet more than 85% of its energy requirement.

---