Editorial: Existential threat looms large

The signs are too ominous to ignore. Despite the ongoing efforts to reduce the risks associated with climate change, half of humanity is living in the danger zone and many ecosystems are at the point of no return. For India, the dangers are far too grave. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) […]

The signs are too ominous to ignore. Despite the ongoing efforts to reduce the risks associated with climate change, half of humanity is living in the danger zone and many ecosystems are at the point of no return. For India, the dangers are far too grave. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has, in its latest report, warned that several Indian cities, coastal areas and Himalayan river systems are at grave risk. Mumbai is at high risk of severe flooding and sea-level rise, Ahmedabad is a serious case of urban heat island while several cities, including Chennai, Bhubaneswar, Patna and Lucknow, are approaching dangerous levels of heat and humidity. Rice production in the country can decrease by 10% to 30%, whereas maize can decrease 25% to 70%, assuming a range of temperature increase from 1 degree to 4 degrees Celsius. For the first time, the IPCC, a global body of scientists that makes periodic reviews of climate science, has come out with regional assessments, even focusing on mega-cities. The report has warned that India is one of the most vulnerable countries globally in terms of the population that will be affected by sea-level rise. Though India has pledged to implement the protocols set by the Paris accord, it needs global support for green technology and resources up to $2.5 trillion in the 15-year period for climate action. In terms of clean energy transition, the country has been faring reasonably well, having set one of the world’s most ambitious renewable energy targets, but lack of flue-gas desulphurisation (FGD) units, a technology that reduces sulphur dioxide emissions, at most power plants is turning out to be a major stumbling block.

In a way, the IPCC report comes as a damning indictment of failed climate leadership. As per the latest assessment, adverse impacts of climate change are far greater, more frequent and vastly more disruptive than previously understood. By the middle of the century, around 35 million people in India could face annual coastal flooding, if emissions are high. Damage from sea-level rise in Mumbai alone could be up to $162 billion a year by 2050. In the first part of the report, released in last August, the global body had warned that 1.5 degrees Celsius warming of the globe was likely to be reached before 2040 itself. The latest report warns that multiple disasters induced by climate change are likely to emerge in different parts of the world in the next two decades, even if efforts are made to keep the global rise in temperatures within 1.5 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial times. If this threshold is breached, there are likely to be additional severe impacts, some of them irreversible. The risks for the vulnerable communities will increase, including to infrastructure and low-lying coastal settlements.