Editorial: No end in sight for war

The pointless war is fanning regional instability and fuelling global tensions and divisions

Hyderabad: As the Russia-Ukraine war completes one year, leaving a trail of death and destruction on both sides and a massive disruption of global trade, there is still no sign of resolution. When he sent troops to invade Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin expected a meek surrender by the neighbour with no meaningful involvement of other countries. However, it has turned out to be a grave miscalculation, leading to a protracted conflict with seemingly no end in sight. Thousands of people have died and more than 13 million people were made refugees abroad or displaced inside Ukraine. Contrary to the initial expectations, Ukraine managed to push back the invading army from Kyiv. It also reversed some other territorial losses, including at Kherson in November, the only regional capital Russia had seized. The pointless war is fanning regional instability and fuelling global tensions and divisions while diverting attention and resources from other crises and pressing global issues. The trust deficit between Russia and the West is now at an all-time high. The reverberations of the war are being felt far and wide. For India, the Ukraine crisis has thrown up a diplomatic dilemma, forcing it to do some tightrope walking and strike a balance between the imperatives of its long and time-tested bilateral ties with Russia and the need to side with the chorus of outrage over Moscow’s unjustified invasion of a sovereign country. India has been consistently rooting for a negotiated settlement of all disputes and immediate cessation of hostilities. It took a pragmatic approach throughout the conflict, purely guided by national interests.

While abstaining from the US-sponsored UN Security Council resolution condemning Russia’s aggression, New Delhi has also criticised Moscow by flagging three key concerns: respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity of states, the UN Charter and international law. The global impact of the war came as a major test of the resilience of the Indian economy. The invasion caused prices of fuel, fertilizer, wheat and other critical commodities, of which Russia or Ukraine were major suppliers, to spike. This caused the value of imports to skyrocket in India. From energy requirements to defence supplies, India opted for a practical approach and ensured supplies from Moscow despite the pressure from Western countries including the United States. As the war enters its second year, that tightrope walk will get tighter. New Delhi needs to be constantly vigilant on the possible need to recalibrate its relationship with Moscow and, at the same time, ensure that its interests are protected. Slowing global growth, as a result of the Ukraine war, also implies weak international trade, thus hurting the prospects for Indian exporters. The latest World Bank Global Economic Prospects report, released in January, expects global growth to be just 1.7% in 2023, down from an earlier forecast of 3% six months ago.