Editorial: Reaping demographic dividend

Stepping up public investments in education and professional skilling of youth is the way forward

Hyderabad: India becoming the world’s most populous country is neither a matter of national pride nor should it cause any anxiety or alarm. A dispassionate look at the population trends will lead to the realisation that stepping up public investments in education and professional skilling of youth is the way forward to tap the full potential of the demographic dividend. The United Nations Population Fund (UNPF) had projected that India would overtake China in the next two months, with its population estimated to touch 142.86 crore compared with China’s 142.57 crore. India outstripping China in terms of population has come as no surprise because it has been anticipated for some time now. But what has expedited the process is the fact that China’s growth has been slowing considerably. Demographers use a variety of metrics — fertility and replacement rates, age and region-wise data — to arrive at a far more layered understanding of population dynamics compared with the time when the country launched its first family planning programme. A positive aspect of India’s population growth is an inbuilt opportunity for a demographic dividend. The latest UNFPA report says that more than two-thirds of India’s population comprises people between the ages of 15 and 64, considered the working population of a country. Education, skill development and creating opportunities, especially for the youth of disadvantaged sections and women, will hold the key to the country using the demographic dividend to its advantage in the next two decades.

However, a major area of concern is the declining levels of women’s participation in the labour force. World Bank data shows that female labour participation in India plunged from 32% in 2005 to 19% in 2021. This is a key reason for the country being slow to take advantage of its large working-age population. The fertility rate in India has been steadily dropping. The National Family Health 5 Survey (2019-21) found that India attained a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 2.0 for the first time, less than the replacement level of 2.1. At this rate, the country’s population is likely to start its decline closer to 2050. The population of young people in the age group of 10-24 years was 365 million as per the 2011 Census and it is projected to touch 379 million in 2023. For a country with the largest youth population, formulating effective policies beneficial for the huge workforce is key. The tag of being the most populous country may not trigger pride, but it would be imprudent to view it simply as a crippling burden. The India growth story is the shared journey of a billion and a half Indians. With basic schooling and access to the internet, the rural youth are now more aspirational than ever. The cherished goal is to make it more inclusive and rewarding.

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