Opinion: Pursue own foreign policy

India will remain ideologically close to the West but cannot be over-reliant on a few countries for national security

By Dhananjay Tripathi 

Recently in India, a number of G20 events in different cities and institutions have had a positive impact in terms of generating a public discourse on foreign policy issues. Similarly, the Russian invasion of Ukraine also got comprehensive coverage in the Indian media and New Delhi’s neutral position on the war is extensively debated, nationally and internationally.

---

A few foreign policy analysts persistently advocate India to think beyond the historical context of its relationship with Russia and side with the West. There is an element of truth that we are still living in the West-dominated world order, and it is equally correct that India, over the years, has developed close partnerships with developed western countries.

Nevertheless, India has diverse foreign policy challenges ranging from cross-border terrorism to China’s provocative military build-up near its border. India also has global aspirations. Still, for New Delhi, the immediate concern is securing its borders from China’s possible incursion and developing a credible deterrence in the long run. To achieve it, India requires uninterrupted economic growth and modernisation of its army. In this regard, New Delhi has to weigh its options carefully and realistically.

Let us discuss a few important variables of the contemporary world and, in light of these, judge India’s current foreign policy approach.

US-China Economic Knot

It is no longer a secret that in 1971, US National Security Adviser Henry Kissinger discreetly visited China and laid the foundation of a relationship between the two countries. Leaving aside the political-ideological differences, the US, over the years, built robust commercial ties with communist China. Modern China, which we know, could not have achieved economic success without bulk manufacturing orders that it received from American companies. The multinational corporations headquartered in the US took advantage of the cheap factors of production like labour available in China.

Notably, the US-China trade reached a record level of $690 billion in 2022. The neo-liberal lobby of the US is not vehemently opposed to China despite a few reservations, particularly on intellectual property rights. There is visibly a different approach of President Joe Biden towards China, not as aggressive as his predecessor. Likewise, the trade figures between the US and China cannot be ignored. The million-dollar question is when and how will the US detach itself from the Chinese economy?

While the narrative of the US-China competition is not without substance, it is certainly too unpredictable at the stage to take a side. The composite web of economic interdependence in the existing world makes it difficult for big countries to economically rescue themselves from China – the giant manufacturing hub of the world. Remember, India-China trade remained largely unaffected even during the height of the border crisis. This explains China’s critical position in the world economy, and it’s logical for India to only partially count on the US when it comes to countering China near its borders.

Dilemma of Europe

In Europe, after Russia’s invasion, countries like France and Germany are more cautious in their response towards China. The two reasons for this are quite interesting and contradictory to each other. A few in Europe assume China, as a potential peace-maker, can pacify Russia, and this perception got further acceptability after the Chinese leader Xi Jinping recently visited Moscow. Very different from the first is the opinion that China shall not be antagonised by the West to the extent that it leads to some kind of Russia-China bloc.

The war is in Europe, and there are no signs of it ending soon. Indeed, it is a significant worry for the regional powers. Therefore, Europe’s China policy differs from that of the US and surrounds Russia. In brief, the European powers are passive toward China, which may continue for a while. In this, let us not discount the economic ties between the European countries and China.

The Indian Option

To summarise, the present international political-economic system is volatile and evolving. The US is no longer in the driving position, and so is Europe. The rising and assertive China has material resources and is unwilling to play by the established rules of the game. The Beijing Consensus, as an alternative to the Washington Consensus, is now a familiar concept for a student of international relations.

In these circumstances, who is absolutely with whom is the most difficult question to answer. Thus, a developing country like India must pursue an independent foreign policy evaluating its strengths and limitations. Democracy, a sizable middle-class and a growing economy are India’s strengths, whereas it faces dual challenges at borders from China and Pakistan. Finally, it is also crucial to mention that the West’s position on Pakistan varies with time, from giving Pakistan free rides to chiding it for sponsoring and harbouring terrorists.

Undoubtedly, India is and will remain ideologically close to the West but cannot afford to be over-reliant on a few countries on matters related to national security. New Delhi’s foreign policy might appear confusing to some, not in black and white, but it makes complete sense if one reads it from the Indian perspective.