Opinion: Taiwan’s dilemma continues — a pawn in the US-China great power rivalry
Uncertainty over President Trump’s Taiwan policy, arms sales and security commitments is raising concerns about regional stability while boosting Beijing’s confidence
By Dr Gunjan Singh
The recently concluded meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping garnered considerable international attention. As expected, the two sides discussed an array of issues ranging from the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, trade, tariffs, but the limelight seems to be squarely on the future of Taiwan.
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This further underscores that Xi has centred the ‘rejuvenation of the Chinese nation’ on ensuring that Taiwan does not gain ‘full independence’. He also did not mince any words and clearly asserted to Trump that the “Taiwan issue is the most critical issue in China-US relations” and “if there is miscalculation or mismanagement, the entire US-China relationship [is] in an extremely dangerous situation”. This is essential to avoid the Thucydides Trap.
China-US Summit
Trump’s statements post the meeting to Fox News, arguing that he is not keen on anyone declaring independence and claiming that Taiwan is far from the United States, were received positively by Beijing. An article in China Daily argued, “The China-United States summit has dealt a severe blow to the ‘pro-independence’ stance of Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party and sent a clear warning to separatist forces”.
This has also led to some major doomsday calculations in the United States. As per reports, a number of Trump’s advisers firmly believe that Beijing may attack Taiwan in the next five years to fulfil its goal of reunification.
With the clear talks of the damage Taiwan independence will do to China-US relations, Xi is definitely trying to push a new narrative within the United States. This, coupled with the Trump administration’s delay in approving the $11 billion arms sale to Taiwan, further adds uncertainty to the future of the island. When asked about the arms sale, Trump said, “I haven’t approved it yet. We’re going to see what happens … I may do it. I may not do it.”
Trump’s transactional mindset and his comments during campaigning, that Taiwan has stolen the US chip and semiconductor industry, have also raised questions about the US commitment towards the island nation under his leadership. The fact that Taiwan is quite far away from the US was also reiterated earlier by Trump. This is bound to create some anxiety within Taiwan.
The absence of a clear US policy on Taiwan under President Trump is helping Beijing shape a new narrative, accompanied by an intensified use of grey-zone tactics and growing military pressure across the Taiwan Strait
US Arms Sales
Lai Ching-te, the Taiwanese President, has asserted the importance of US arms sales to his nation. He said, “Given that China has never given up the use of force to annex Taiwan and continues to expand its military power to try to change the regional and cross-strait status quo, America’s continued sale of arms to Taiwan and deeper US-Taiwan security cooperation is necessary and a key factor in maintaining regional peace and stability”.
The response from Taipei has been resolute. “Taiwan will not provoke any conflict but will also not give up its sovereignty” and Taiwan “will not be sacrificed or traded”. However, China’s consistent push to increasingly isolate Taiwan diplomatically has been proving increasingly successful.
Under Xi’s rule, Taiwan has lost the bulk of its diplomatic connections, and as of 2026, only 12 countries recognise the Republic of China (Taiwan). Post the meeting, around 100 navy, coast guard and research vessels have been deployed by China across the Yellow Sea, Western Pacific and South China Sea.
Beijing’s Confidence
One can conclude that, while the world expected the primary focus to be on Iran, trade and tariffs, it was Taiwan which became the central issue. The fact that Trump mentioned that he and Xi “talked a lot about Taiwan” and he was even asked if Washington will get involved if Beijing attacks Taipei, is a clear signal of the aggressive and bold nature of Chinese foreign policy under Xi.
It also underscores the growing confidence which Beijing has achieved over the years. However, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told NBC that “Washington’s policy toward the island had not changed following Trump’s meeting with Xi in Beijing” does not provide the much-needed confidence. Even though Trump has mentioned that he plans to talk to the Taiwanese President to discuss the current situation, no date or timeline for the same has been stated yet.
The fact that the US under Trump has not shown a clear policy towards Taiwan helps Beijing in building a new narrative. It has already amped up the military pressure across the straits under Xi with increasing use of grey zone tactics and asserting that Taiwan is ‘sacred territory’.
A non-committal response from Washington will only embolden Beijing. It would not be wrong to say that the US has shown commitment to the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) and has consistently asserted that it will help Taiwan defend itself has proved a major deterrent to China. It has also prevented Beijing from undertaking overt measures against Taipei.
However, the talk of the Thucydides Trap is a clear claim by Beijing of its power position today. This, coupled with such strong assertion and almost a ‘warning’ vis-à-vis Taiwan and the US, clearly challenges Washington’s role in the region and indicates the cost which the US might have to pay if it decides to cross China’s red lines.
(The author is Associate Professor, OP Jindal Global University)
