Irrespective of what the stalwarts from Sangh Parivar, the purported custodians of Hindu interests, propagate, Muslim population in India will not exceed that of Hindu’s
By Dramila
Hyderabad: A few days ago, I was talking to my two aunts, well-meaning, devout, conscientious, elderly Hindu women. They both believe that the growing Muslim population in India is a grave concern. Why? Because they both read on WhatsApp that the Muslim population in India is growing so fast that very soon Muslims will become a majority in this country. One aunt believed they would become the majority by 2050, whereas the other aunt thought it would happen much sooner, by 2035.
This is a fear shared not only by my aunts but many other well-meaning aunts, uncles, cousins, brothers and sisters across India. Most importantly, the stalwarts from Sangh Parivar, the purported custodians of Hindu interests, propagate this fear quite generously. Recently, RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat expressed this concern about the rising share of Muslims in the country’s population calling it a ‘threat to India’. Some Hindutva proponents believe that the rate of growth among Muslims in India is 2.5 times that of Hindus, and that their population would soon explode.
So, are these fears indeed real and rational?
Baring Basics
Here are some basics. When the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of a country or State, that is, the average number of babies per adult woman, reaches 2.1, called the replacement level, then its population will be steady, over a period of time. If it is higher than 2.1, then the population would be eventually growing, and if it is lower than 2.1, then the population would be eventually shrinking. The increase and shrinkage do not happen right away but take a few decades to reflect in the population growth. For many decades, many countries in the world tried to bring their TFR below 2.1 with the fear that the growing population would be a burden.
Currently, the Indian fertility rate is at 2.05, which is great news. This means, India’s population would eventually start decreasing (it would continue to increase for the next three decades because it takes time to reflect the lower TFR). Meanwhile, China’s population has started to shrink already, and the current fertility rate of 1.7 suggests that it is going to shrink much more rapidly in future.
In fact, most of the developed countries across the world have already started to shrink, with France at 1.83, the USA at 1.64 and Germany at 1.53. Japan at a TFR of 1.34 has already sounded alarm urging its citizens to produce more babies. But it is not going to be that easy, because prosperous societies do not produce enough babies. With better infant mortality rate and healthcare, with better women’s education and empowerment, families decide to have fewer babies, while some women remain unmarried. South Korea with 0.84 fertility rate is in a grave situation, facing the prospect of extreme shrinkage of its population.
Biggest Problem
A few decades from now, one of the biggest problems facing mankind on this planet would be its shrinking population, not exploding population.
Though India’s fertility rate is now at 2.05, it has been slowing down quite rapidly in the last few decades. It was 5.91 in 1960, 4.83 in 1980, 3.31 in 2000, 2.58 in 2010, reaching 2.05 in 2020. It would go down further. Like most developed countries, the major topic of debate in 2036 will be the crisis of India’s population decline. That’s when the working population will be less than 50%, ending the period of India’s demographic dividend. As per new estimates, India’s population could peak in 2048, reaching 1.6 billion, and then it will start decreasing.
The southern States have already gone below the TFR of 2.1. Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka are at 1.7, and Telangana, Tamil Nadu and Kerala are at 1.8. However, States like Bihar at 3.0 and UP at 2.4 continue to show a steady increase. But it is just a matter of time before even these States will catch up to show a decline in population.
It is a general trend across all nations and States in the world that as societies and communities tend to prosper, their women get educated and empowered, and the population growth shall start declining and soon start shrinking.
Prosperity, not Community
And this trend is applicable to all societies, including Muslims. Unlike what Hindutva wants you to believe, that ‘it is Muslim habit to make more babies’, there is nothing unique about Muslims that make them buck the trend.
Though Bangladesh is predominantly Muslim, it has already reached a fertility rate of 2.0, lower than India. And more prosperous Muslim countries already show a decline in population. UAE (1.46), Qatar (1.82), Bahrain (1.83) and Iran (1.71) are all Muslim countries, whose fertility rate is below 2.1. This goes on to show that the population in a society will decrease irrespective of religion. What matters is prosperity and women’s education and empowerment.
Muslims in India
Now, let’s come to the question of Muslims in India. In India, all economically backward communities show a higher fertility rate. STs had a TFR of 2.5, Muslims at 2.4, SCs at 2.3, and OBCs at 2.2 in 2019. According to the Sachar Committee report, the socio-economic status of Muslims in India is more or less similar to that of the OBCs, SC and STs, and not surprisingly it is also reflected in their fertility rates. Therefore, it is not religion, but the socio-economic status of a community that decides the fertility rate. The poorer a community, the higher the fertility rate.
PT Rajan, Finance Minister of Tamil Nadu, said in a forum, ‘if you want to decrease your population, please give education to women’. Thankfully, the female literacy rates of ST, Muslims, SC and OBC are all increasing in India, and their fertility rate is decreasing. In fact, the fastest decrease is seen among Muslims, which means they will hit a TFR of less than 2.1 before the end of this decade. Already, in more developed States like Telangana, the TFR of Muslims is only 1.9, which goes on to prove that Muslim population growth is a function of their prosperity and female literacy.
So, will Muslims ever become a majority in this country? Not at all.
Even if we were to assume the worst-case scenario, that the growth rate of Muslims would be 2.4 forever, which is highly unlikely, then Muslims will be a majority in this country 260 years from now, that is, in 2283. But in reality, with improving female literacy and improved economic conditions, the growth rate of Muslims is decreasing faster than that of any other community in India, and, therefore, we would never see the above scenario.
A key fascist agenda of Hindutava has been to create an imaginary fear based on manufactured victimhood of the dominant majority population against a minority
The most likely scenario is that Muslim growth would taper off, and their current share in the Indian population which stood at 14.2% in 2001, may not exceed 18% even at its peak, and after that, there is a strong likelihood that it would even decrease a bit. In summary, Muslims will never become a majority in this country. Not even in the next 300 years. That they would become a majority is a lie. It is an imaginary and artificial fear.
Imaginary Fear
So, how come so many people, including my two aunts, believe in this lie? The reason why so many Indians believe in these fears emanates from another place.
Under Hindutva, India is turning fascist under a majoritarian agenda to push all other identities into conformance and submission. In fact, one of the key fascist agendas has been to create an artificial and imaginary fear based on manufactured victimhood of the powerful, dominant majority population against a minority, who is called the internal enemy.
Nazi Germans created an artificial fear against Jews citing that the German way of life would cease to exist because of Jews. And this fear, though irrational, based on blatant lies, was believed by so many millions of Germans, that they eventually allowed and celebrated ignominious laws to subjugate the Jews, which eventually led to ostracism, then boycott, then ghettoisation, then moving them into concentration camps, and finally to the death in gas chambers, of nearly six million Jews.
Right now, one such artificial fear is being manufactured against the Muslims citing that very soon the Muslim population in India is going to be higher than that of Hindus, and, therefore, the raison d’etre that Muslims need to be kept in check.
The biggest danger we face is the massive polarisation of this country into ‘us vs them’ where some religions are seen as ‘internal enemies’ by Hindutva
The problem with such belief systems is that they are not based on real facts or evidence, but only on feelings, and some of us subscribe to such false notions only because of deep-seated prejudice against Muslims, some of which we might have inherited from society around us.
Based on artificial and imaginary fears, insane laws are being enacted that curtail the freedoms of Muslims in this country, such as anti-hijab, love jihad, CAA+NRC and anti-beef laws. Muslims in this country are being marginalised, suppressed, segregated and discriminated against.
The ground reality is that there is no danger to India or Hindus from the growth of Muslims, whose growth rate is the same as that of ST or SC or Bihar or UP. In about 25 years, the prevailing concern will be the shrinking of the Muslim population, along with the rest of the Indian shrinking population.
The biggest danger we face is the massive polarisation of this country into ‘us vs them’ where some religions are seen as ‘internal enemies’ by Hindutva, which only means we are sowing the seed for a large-scale campaign of hatred which could subsume us all, including the destruction of the very idea of India.
What India should be focusing on is to improve the socio-economic conditions of Muslims as recommended in the Sachar Committee report and ensure improvement of female literacy of Muslim women instead of disallowing them with insane laws like the hijab ban. That will ensure that the growth rate of Muslims will be close to the Indian average, seeing a shrinkage in their population very soon.