Stock market outlook weak as crude oil prices and geopolitical tensions rise

Investors are expected to remain cautious next week amid escalating US-Iran tensions, rising crude oil prices, foreign fund outflows and rupee weakness. Analysts said earnings season developments, geopolitical uncertainty and technical levels will continue to influence sentiment in the Indian stock market

Mumbai: Investors are expected to remain cautious next week as escalating tensions between the US and Iran, rising crude oil prices, the ongoing March quarter earnings season, foreign fund outflows and rupee weakness are likely to dictate the direction of the Indian stock market.

Benchmark indices extended losses for the second consecutive session on Friday, weighed down mainly by banking and financial stocks amid growing geopolitical uncertainty.

---

The Sensex ended 516 points, or 0.66 per cent, lower at 77,328.19, while the Nifty slipped 151 points, or 0.62 per cent, to close at 24,176.15.

Commenting on Nifty technical outlook, experts said that on the upside, resistance levels are placed at 24,500 and 24,600.

“On the downside, support is seen at 24,000 and 23,800. A breakdown below 23,800 could result in increased selling pressure,” an analyst stated.

Market participants will closely track developments in the ongoing US-Iran conflict after tensions escalated over the Strait of Hormuz crisis.

The geopolitical tensions also pushed global crude oil prices sharply higher. Although prices later trimmed gains amid hopes of easing hostilities, concerns over potential supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz continue to keep investors on edge.

Investors will also focus on the March quarter earnings season as more than 400 companies are scheduled to announce their results in the coming week.

Corporate earnings and management commentary are expected to provide cues on demand trends, margin pressures and the broader economic outlook.

Commenting on Bank Nifty technical outlook, analyst stated that in the near term, immediate downside support is placed in the 54,600–54,200 zone in case selling pressure re-emerges.

“On the upside, 56,400 acts as immediate resistance, while 56,800 stands as the next key supply zone,” an analyst mentioned.

“Given the current market structure, traders are advised to remain disciplined and adhere to strict stop-loss strategies amid ongoing volatility,” a market expert stated.