Will El Nino spoil India’s monsoons? Expert flags risks for 2026

Climate scientist Dr M N Rajeevan has warned of a possible strong El Nino event in 2026 that could affect India’s monsoon. However, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole may partly offset its impact and help maintain near-normal rainfall.

Hyderabad: Weeks before the official forecast from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), climate scientist and former Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Dr M N Rajeevan has warned of a high probability of a strong El Nino event in 2026, which is typically associated with deficient monsoons in India.

In a cautionary update shared on social media platform X on Friday, Dr Rajeevan cited emerging indications from global climate models suggesting that a ‘strong El Nino’ event could develop over the equatorial Pacific during the upcoming monsoon months.

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A strong El Nino is a major cause for concern in India as it often suppresses rainfall, leading to deficient monsoons. However, Dr Rajeevan said, “Models also indicate the possible development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) during the monsoon season. A positive IOD generally tends to support normal or above-normal rainfall, partly offsetting the El Nino influence.”

He pointed to historical precedents like 1997 and 2023, where a positive IOD helped India achieve normal or near-normal rainfall despite the presence of El Nino. However, years like 1972, 1982 and 2015 saw deficient rains when the IOD was unable to counter El Nino, he said.

Dr Rajeevan also cautioned that if a strong El Nino persists, it could trigger more frequent and intense heatwaves in 2027, with an onset as early as March. “At present, there is no reason for alarm. However, the government and relevant agencies should closely monitor the evolution of these climate drivers and begin considering strategic response measures that can be implemented once more reliable forecasts become available,” he added.

How El Nino impacts Indian monsoons:

• Causes deficient rainfall by preventing the formation of rain clouds.
• Historically, 50 to 60 percent of El Nino years have resulted in droughts in India.
• It can also cause late arrival of monsoons and early withdrawal.
• El Nino is also associated with rising temperatures and frequent heatwaves.