WMO warns global temperatures likely to stay near record highs through 2026–2030

A World Meteorological Organisation report forecasts that global temperatures will remain near record highs between 2026 and 2030, with a high chance of temporarily exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. It warns of increasing risks from climate change and stronger El Niño effects

New Delhi: Global average temperatures are likely to continue at or near record levels in the next five years, a report from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), produced by the UK’s Met Office, said on Thursday, adding that Arctic temperature anomalies are expected to continue to be higher than the global mean.

The report said that although the average temperature over the next five years is likely to exceed 1.5 degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels, this does not represent a breach of the Paris Agreement, which refers to a long-term warming typically over 20 years.

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Annual global mean near-surface temperatures during 2026-2030 are predicted to range between 1.3 and 1.9 degree Celsius above the 1850-1900 average.

It is likely (86 per cent chance) that one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record, according to the report.

According to the findings, it is very likely (91 per cent chance) that the global mean near-surface temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5 degree Celsius above the 1850-1900 average levels for at least one year between 2026 and 2030.

This level was also temporarily exceeded in 2024, when the global average surface temperature was about 1.55 degree Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline.

There is an El Nino predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year, said Dr Leon Hermanson, lead author of the report.

The five-year predicted average temperature in the central tropical Pacific (Nino 3.4 region) indicates a tendency towards El Nino conditions, particularly in 2027 and 2028.

Under the Paris Agreement, countries agreed to hold the increase in long-term global average surface temperature well below 2 degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 degree Celsius.

The scientific community has repeatedly warned that warming of more than 1.5 degree Celsius risks unleashing ever more severe climate change impacts and extreme weather and decreases adaptation options.