Editorial: Ukraine rewrites rules of war

The Operation Spider’s Web sent out a message to the world that an underdog in asymmetric warfare can gain an upper hand by leveraging technological innovation

When Russian President Vladimir Putin sent troops to invade Ukraine in February 2022, he expected a meek surrender by the neighbour and a swift end to his mission. However, it has turned out to be a grave miscalculation, leading to a protracted conflict with no end in sight. Thousands of soldiers have died on both sides, and millions of people are suffering the consequences of the conflict. By launching an audacious drone strike on five military bases deep inside Russian territory, destroying over 40 bomber aircraft, Ukraine has now rewritten the rules of modern warfare. The ‘Operation Spider’s Web’ has exposed the vulnerability of Russian military infrastructure and the chinks in its intelligence set-up. In a daring mission, a swarm of 117 drones were smuggled into Russia in wooden cabins loaded on trucks and were remotely activated to target Russian air bases stretching up to far-away Siberia, more than 4,500 km from the Ukrainian border. This is a highly embarrassing moment for Putin as his country’s air power stands partially crippled, with 41 strategic bombers and surveillance aircraft being damaged. The drone attacks have virtually changed the definition of modern warfare. Russian air defences and radars were not prepared for such a sudden and low-altitude attack. The operation, involving 18 months of planning, sent out a message to the world that an underdog in asymmetric warfare can gain an upper hand by leveraging technological innovation. With the entry of artificial intelligence, future wars may be fought entirely between machines.

The Ukrainian assault appeared aimed at stoking fear in the Kremlin about the other vulnerable targets in the Russian heartland where Kyiv could inflict pain in the future. It also demonstrated how the Ukrainians still have leverage, even though President Trump told President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, in an infamous Oval Office meeting earlier this year, that he didn’t “have the cards.” Ukrainians are proving far more resilient and adaptable fighters than anyone had anticipated before the start of the Russian invasion. Trump, too, must be more worried now. He had bombastically claimed that he could convince Putin and Zelenskyy to agree to a ceasefire. His plans have now gone awry. Both countries have escalated the war again. Ultimately, the longer Trump declines to apply real pressure on Russia, the longer the war is likely to drag on. And, the more Ukraine struggles on the battlefield, the more likely that it will turn to such impactful, asymmetric attacks. The immediate impact of the drone attacks was that the second round of peace talks between the two warring nations, held in Istanbul, ended in a failure, barring a prisoners’ swap. The two sides committed to returning the bodies of 12,000 soldiers. Ukrainian negotiators said Russia had again rejected an unconditional ceasefire, a key demand by Kyiv and its allies in Europe and the United States.

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