India: Monsoon may arrive on June 4

The India Meteorological Department said on Tuesday. Scientists, however, said the slight delay is unlikely to impact agriculture and total rainfall over the country

New Delhi: A slight delay is expected in the onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala and it is likely to arrive by June 4, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday. Scientists, however, said the slight delay is unlikely to impact agriculture and total rainfall over the country. The southwest monsoon normally sets in over Kerala on June 1, with a standard deviation of about 7 days.

“This year, the southwest monsoon onset over Kerala is likely to be slightly delayed. The monsoon onset over Kerala is likely to be on June 4 with a model error of 4 days,” the Met office said in a statement. The monsoon arrived in the southern State on May 29 last year, June 3 in 2021, June 1 in 2020, June 8 in 2019 and May 29 in 2018. The advance of the southwest monsoon over the Indian mainland is marked by the onset over Kerala and is an important indicator characterising the transition from the hot and dry season to the rainy season.

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The IMD said its forecasts for the monsoon onset over Kerala have proved to be correct during the last 18 years except in 2015. The predicted monsoon onset is within the standard deviation of 7 days. It is unlikely to impact agriculture and overall rainfall over the country, IMD chief M Mohapatra said. “There is no one-to-one relationship between the onset date and the total rainfall over the country during the season. Also, the monsoon arriving early or in late in Kerala doesn’t mean it will cover other parts of the country accordingly. The monsoon is characterised by largescale variabilities and global, regional and local features,” he said. M Rajeevan, former secretary of the union Ministry of Earth Sciences, said it is unlikely that the delay is due to Cyclone Mocha.

“Had the cyclone occurred around May 20-May 25, it would have really affected the monsoon. The cyclone is already over. It could be due to insufficient heating over the Indian subcontinent. The progress of the monsoon also depends on other factors such as the phases of Madden-Julian Oscillation and how the El Nino is evolving,” Rajeevan added.