One more survey shows BRS with clear edge in Jubilee Hills bypoll
BRS is projected to retain the Jubilee Hills Assembly seat with a 5–8% margin, according to a Chanakya Strategies survey. The report cites anti-incumbency against Congress, unfulfilled promises, and Maganti Gopinath’s legacy as key factors driving voter sentiment
Hyderabad: The Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) is seen holding a clear advantage in the Jubilee Hills Assembly constituency, with yet another pre-poll survey, this time by Chanakya Strategies, projecting a decisive edge for the party in the upcoming by-election. Its candidate, Maganti Sunitha, is estimated to win with a comfortable margin of 5 to 8 per cent.
There have already been at least three surveys and a people’s mood survey as well by different independent agencies and consultancies that predicted a BRS win in the bypoll.
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The Chanakya Strategies survey, conducted amid growing disillusionment with the ruling Congress government’s performance, estimates that BRS will secure 43 per cent of the votes, compared to 38 per cent for Congress, 10 per cent for the Bharatiya Janata Party and 9 per cent for other parties. This reflects a notable advantage for BRS in voter preference so far.
The by-election was necessitated by the untimely demise of sitting MLA Maganti Gopinath, a three-time representative who won on a Telugu Desam Party ticket in 2014 and as a BRS nominee in 2018 and 2023. Gopinath had built a strong support base in the constituency, and his widow, Sunitha, from the influential Kamma community, was swiftly announced as the BRS candidate, a move that has struck a chord with local voters.
Swing voters and anti-establishment tilt
A key factor working in BRS’ favour is the swing voter segment, accounting for 9 per cent of the electorate, largely comprising anti-establishment voices disillusioned with the government. The survey indicates that at least 4 per cent of these voters are leaning towards BRS, while only 2 per cent are inclined towards Congress, further consolidating BRS’ lead.
Public perception of the Congress regime, now two years into its term, appears to have dipped. As many as 63 per cent of respondents rated the government’s performance as “bad”, 29 per cent as “good”, while 8 per cent remained undecided. High-profile issues such as the controversial Hydraa demolitions have alienated a significant section of urban voters and weakened Congress’ support base.
Congress, which aimed to consolidate the Backward Classes and minority vote through its candidate Naveen Yadav, is facing challenges in widening its appeal. While Yadav may receive some backing from the Yadav community, other BC groups have shown reluctance to support him fully. Minority women voters also appear to prefer Sunitha, adding to Congress’ concerns.
BJP’s Deepak Reddy, who contested unsuccessfully in the previous elections, is projected to secure up to 10 per cent of the vote share. The survey, however, cautions that this could dip further, limiting BJP’s influence in the triangular contest.
Demographics and youth edge
Jubilee Hills has a diverse electorate of over 3.5 lakh voters. About 12,000 first-time voters are seen favouring the Congress nominee, while older demographics appear tilted towards BRS, with nearly 70 per cent of voters aged above 30 backing Sunitha.
The constituency’s age profile is as follows: 72,000 voters aged 20 to 29 years, 96,000 aged 30 to 39 years, 87,000 aged 40 to 49 years, 67,000 aged 50 to 59 years, 38,000 aged 60 to 69 years and 24,000 aged 70 years and above.
Congress’ unfulfilled promises fuel discontent
The survey further highlights widespread disappointment over the implementation of the Congress government’s six guarantees. Even initiatives such as free bus travel for women, fine rice distribution and the grounding of the Indiramma housing scheme have not met the expectations of most voters.
BRS president K Chandrashekhar Rao’s early finalisation of the candidate and the party’s advantage from Gopinath’s legacy have positioned it as the frontrunner, the survey noted.
