New Delhi can provide leadership to the Global South, which is one of China’s worries.
By Dhananjay Tripathi
Hyderabad: From the perspective of international relations, describing the world is complex, particularly when several events continuously shape and reshape global politics. Albeit, these keenly watched international events are likely to draw the attention of individuals. The central curiosity is to judge the position of different countries in the changing world order. So let us evaluate contemporary world politics and make some assessments about the status of India.
Post-Pandemic World
We are in a post-pandemic world, where the deadly coronavirus starting in 2019 has killed more than 67 lakh people worldwide. According to the data of Economic and Social Affairs of the UN, coronavirus is responsible for ‘9 percent year-on-year’ fall in global production and manufacturing output. This shrinking of the world economy resulted in ‘dramatic loss of almost 10.5 percent in total working hours, the equivalent of 305 million full-time workers’. This virus has also ‘pushed 40-60 million people into extreme poverty’. These figures will likely make us nervous when world politics face many turbulences that equally keep troubling the global economy.
Unstable World
There are two specific cases, one in South Asia and another in Europe, that will help us draw a picture of the current world politics. The first was the return of the Taliban to Afghanistan after a gap of almost two decades. After the 9/11 terrorist attacks on America, the Taliban was chased out of Kabul by international coalition forces that came in support of the United States of America (USA). The same USA was seen shaking hands with the ousted Taliban leadership prominently after 2019 and dubbed all such interactions as peace negotiations. Thereafter, America remained a mute spectator when the Taliban entered Afghanistan in 2021.
The reoccupation of Kabul by the Taliban has made people uncomfortable inside and outside Afghanistan. The reason is the Taliban refused to accept modernity; for example, they still unapologetically keep girls out of schools and universities. The West merely wanted assurance from the Taliban not to shelter anyone like Osama bin Laden which may be detrimental to their security. The people of Afghanistan were left to their fate. The most critical inference one can draw from this is that the US has lost the appetite to invest in conflicting regions where its interest is not directly affected. A few also like to term it the declining power of the US.
Similarly, we witnessed belligerent Russia declaring war against Ukraine in February 2022. After its initial advancement, the Russian army is stuck in Ukraine and facing tough resistance. The Russian invasion of Ukraine was unexpected, bringing the war to Europe’s edge. With the success of regional integration, Europe was considered one of the most stable regions of the world. The US and European powers ultimately have to support Ukraine, and Putin is now in a precarious situation, even warning his enemies of nuclear retaliation. The war’s outcome is unpredictable, but Putin’s Russia will now be an apparent enemy of Europe.
Power Dynamics
So within a span of three years, world politics has substantially altered. The US is no longer in the hegemonic position, whereas China’s rise poses a serious challenge to western domination. China is now the world’s second-largest economy and is unhesitatingly pursuing policies to strengthen its international control. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) are China’s two most important international projects that will deepen its footprint in world politics in the long run.
In short, we are in the post-pandemic and post-unipolar but certainly not in a multipolar world. Meanwhile, the Western countries still have formidable control over international organisations but now they are desperately trying to persuade middle powers like India to be their allies. The challenger China is slowly but smartly making inroads in different regions by supporting various types of political regimes in underdeveloped and developing countries.
So, from a realist paradigm, anarchy is quite evidently visible in the contemporary world. With the world economy in crisis and political uncertainty, nation-states will look inward and try their best to defend their interest. The United Nations is weak and has disappointed many who once believed that liberal institutionalism was a way to overcome international anarchy. These global political-economic disturbances also affect domestic politics, and we can see a lot of populist-nationalist fervour in different countries. The liberal world order of the post-Cold war era is under test, and there is a lack of takers for it. A few Western countries are still willing to invest in it, but none have capabilities like the US, and moreover, each one of them has to face tough resistance from China.
India’s Position
While India too will have to make many choices in the coming time, the present world politics opens opportunities for New Delhi to play a vital role. Due to its international image, India can intervene constructively, like in the case of the G-20 presidency. This is a good way for India to showcase its soft power to the world and simultaneously pursue the agenda of the developing countries. India can provide leadership to the Global South, which is one of China’s worries. Thus, Beijing will keep troubling India, and it is with a purpose. India, therefore, needs to be careful as the Sino-India competition will remain the same for a while.
However, if India keeps moving successfully on economic progress and maintains its social harmony, it can evolve as a great power within and outside the region.