Opinion: Lessons for India from Trump’s ‘betrayal’
Trump’s policies towards India — from deportations, tariffs to siding with Pakistan — exposed the risks of overreliance on any one power
Dr Pavan Kumar
A tragedy often unfolds in a manner that defies our expectations. Just when we anticipate a positive turn of events, we are instead met with an unfortunate and disheartening outcome. In such a situation, numerous valuable elements are inevitably lost.
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The actions taken by US President Donald Trump against India can be likened to a tragedy, reflecting a complex and troubling narrative that warrants deeper examination. Over the past two decades, leaders in both India and the US envisioned a future marked by progress and collaboration.
India saw America as a partner that could bolster its economy and global status, while the US reciprocated these feelings by signing important treaties with India. There was a growing belief that India could emerge as an essential player on the global stage, particularly in Asia, as it navigated its relationship with China.
No Love Lost
Thus, when Donald Trump returned as President of the United States, many in the Indian media and political circles not only welcomed the news but also saw it as a significant opportunity for India. Analysts highlighted the strong personal rapport between Donald Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. They believed that this friendship could present a considerable challenge to China. However, this dream was short-lived, lasting only a few months. Suddenly, Trump chose a different path.
New Delhi’s foreign policy must not yield to electoral pressures but remain focused on long-term national interests
The US President began undermining the shared dreams. The first major move was to deport ‘illegal’ Indian citizens on military aircraft, with pictures of an Indian chained made public. The second significant moment emerged during the Indian-Pakistan war, where Trump appeared to side with Pakistan, and repeatedly claimed he brokered a peace deal between the two nuclear neighbours.
It was frustrating for New Delhi as the US, with its misguided policies, placed India in an embarrassing situation. The final blow came in the form of 25 per cent tariffs on Indian goods, which were then raised by an additional 25 per cent to ‘punish India for buying Russian oil’. This took the India-US relationship to its lowest point in the 21st century.
Did we learn anything from these events? Or, in other words, should India draw a lesson from Trump’s ‘betrayal’?
The Takeaways
The key takeaway from the entire situation is clear: never put all your interests and resources into a single state. Some political commentators argue that India did not make significant efforts to strengthen Indo-US ties. Others believe India is vulnerable because of China and tends to remain cautious. They believe that if India risks compromising its future and if it does not fully align with the US, then this will make it difficult for New Delhi to emerge as a great power.
However, India has followed a balanced policy — maintaining friendship with the US and Europe without jeopardising its relations with Russia or China.
Four lessons emerge from this situation:
• First, those who believed that Trump’s return was inherently a great thing for India must understand that there is nothing inherent about the behaviour of leaders. It is impossible to predict future relations with a leader. Relying on personal relationships to shape foreign policy is risky.
• Second, India must recognise that the US will always prioritise its interests. Assuming a perfect alignment between Indian and American aspirations is misguided. As Ashley Tellis argues in his article on foreign affairs, India cannot be a great power because it is very scared and has not formed a strong friendship with America. However, the question remains – should India complicate its relations with China and Russia when Trump’s America shows little sign of being a friendly state?
• Third, India must also strengthen its economy and internal market. Economic growth should focus on increasing the consumption pattern in the domestic market. Additionally, if the agricultural sector and industry do not grow, India risks economic reliance on China for imports and on America for exports of goods or services.
• Fourth, strengthening BRICS and regional organisations will benefit China most, and Beijing will encourage India to play an active part to counter the US. But as China poses a threat to India, as demonstrated in Doklam and Galwan, India may have to sacrifice some of its strategic freedom. If relations between India and the US do not improve, then, going further, India’s strategic choices will be limited.
Given the current circumstances, India’s tilt towards Russia will add further complexity, particularly in light of Russia-China closeness. If India leans more towards Moscow, it risks being pulled indirectly into Beijing’s framework. No doubt, the government will win people’s support by staying strong, refusing to give in to Trump’s tactics, and moving closer to Russia.
However, New Delhi’s foreign policy must not yield to electoral pressures but remain focused on long-term national interests. Pragmatism and not sentiments must drive India’s engagement with the world. Trump Tariffs should be a reminder that in global politics, there are no permanent friends, only permanent interests.
(The author is Assistant Professor of Global Studies, School of Global Affairs, Dr BR Ambedkar University, Delhi)
