Prostate cancer cases to double, deaths to increase by 85% by 2040: Lancet

During the same timeframe, annual fatalities are estimated to surge by 85%, reaching nearly 700,000 deaths by 2040 from 375,000 deaths in 2020.

New Delhi: By 2040, cases of prostate cancer are likely to double worldwide to 2.9 million per year, from 1.4 million per year in 2020, according to a new analysis published in the Lancet Commission.

Over the same period, annual deaths are projected to rise by 85 per cent — from 375,000 deaths in 2020 to almost 700,000 deaths by 2040.

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The analysis to be presented at the upcoming European Association of Urology Congress stated that low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), including India will see the highest increases in cases and death rates.

Importantly, “the true numbers will likely be much higher than the recorded figures due to under-diagnosis and missed opportunities for data collection in LMICs,” the report stated.

Prostate cancer, which accounts for 15 per cent of all male cancers, is already a major cause of death and disability. It is the most common form of male cancer in more than half of the world’s countries.

“Ageing populations and increasing life expectancy will lead to higher numbers of older men in coming years. As the main risk factors for prostate cancer — such as being aged 50 or older and having a family history of the disease — are unavoidable, it will not be possible to prevent the upcoming surge in cases through lifestyle changes or public health interventions,” the researchers said.

“As more and more men around the world live to middle and old age, there will be an inevitable rise in the number of prostate cancer cases. We know this surge in cases is coming, so we need to start planning and take action now,” said Professor Nick James, lead author of the Commission, from The Institute of Cancer Research, London.

“Evidence-based interventions, such as improved early detection and education programmes, will help save lives and prevent ill health from prostate cancer in the years to come. This is especially true for low- and middle-income countries which will bear the overwhelming brunt of future cases,” he added.

The currently available prostate cancer screening is the PSA test — a blood test that measures protein levels called prostate-specific antigen (PSA). While this is common in high-income countries, it may lead to over-testing and unnecessary treatment in older men, and under-testing in high-risk younger men, the researchers argued.

Instead, the researchers called for early-detection programmes for those at high risk; programmes to raise awareness on prostate cancer, and improvements in early diagnosis and treatment in LMICs – where most men present with late-stage disease.