Apart from transforming US isolationism to activism, Biden has to reset equations with Trans-Atlantic allies and Beijing
Bro, who won the US elections? Is Trump going to drag it? These were the questions on US presidential race from a tea seller. Don’t be surprised how could a tea seller know about the US election and don’t think how does it matter to him who wins the contest. Being a citizen of the world’s largest democratic nation, and a political enthusiast, he has every right to know what is happening in one of the oldest democratic nations.
What makes the US so special? Yes, it is the most powerful nation in the world. Powerful in what? No doubt, it is a dominating player in global politics. Given its economic, technological and military stature, for sure, the US policies impact global political and economic equations.
Although Beijing is trying to stand next to, if not at an equal pedestal vis-a-vis the US, the US still has a major say in the international political space. The newly elected POTUS, Joe Biden, has a lot of issues to resolve. Biden would face a confronting task, both on domestic and international fronts, to bring things back to a normal course. Donald Trump’s America was characterised by division, hostility, racism and anti-Islam elements. On the domestic front, the primary task ahead is to build unity among American citizens. Never in its history was the US society so deeply divided as present. It might take longer to free the US society from Trump’s influence.
On the foreign front, the US’ external outlook during the Trump era was driven by the policy of isolation, antagonism with its traditional allies, countering China and withdrawal from international conventions.
Traditionally, global peace, nuclear disarmament, spread of democracy, human rights, developmental aid and green planet are the central themes of democrats’ external outlook. This is not to suggest that politics and national interest are the least priorities for democrats. Their worldview is much broader compared to Republicans. Republicans’ foreign policy revolves around national security, military and economic supremacy.
Apart from transforming the US isolationism to activism, Biden has to reset US equations with its Trans-Atlantic allies not only to checkmate Beijing but also for its own interest. Yes, the Chinese rise is definitely a concerning factor for the US.
In Latin America, which the US sees as its backyard, Trump’s administration tried to counter the Chinese growing influence by unveiling “America Crece” initiative. In contrast to the Chinese way of economic assistance, which is largely through its state-run financial arms, the US, with its America Crece initiative, is encouraging its private players to invest in the region.
With respect to Cuba, Trump reversed the path of Obama administration of normalisation of ties. By reinstating economic sanctions, travel restrictions and blocking channels of remittances, the Trump administration choked the economic lifeline of this island nation.
Surely, Biden’s victory is a nightmare for the Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, a rightist. Given his apathy during the Amazon forest fires and an open verbal confrontation with the new president-elect, it is yet to be seen how he would reset his equations with the White House. Hailed as a ‘Tropical Trump’ for his Trump-style rhetoric and anti-liberal politics, Bolsonaro had supported Trump’s rally for elections openly. The anti-climate stance and a far-right approach were in line with Trump’s conservative approach.
There would be a definite shift in the US approach towards Venezuela in the coming days. Given the plight of the majority of Venezuelans, Biden might ease a few draconian measures of the previous administration and the regime change option would be off the table in the early days of the Biden administration.
On the issue of illegal migration from the Southern border of the US, Biden would address the root cause of the problem rather than resorting to anti-immigration policies and erecting walls, which Trump is known for.
In the contest for supremacy over the Latin American region, Beijing has a clear edge. While the US aid comes with terms and conditions, Beijing’s economic diplomacy is driven by noninterference in the internal affairs of a nation and respect for sovereignty.
Although Biden’s approach to counter Beijing would not be as tough as Trump, it is clear that the former would not shy away from taking a tough stance against China. During Trump’s tenure, Beijing increased its presence across the world. While the US has been withdrawing from international treaties, China made the best use of this global leadership vacuum to project itself as a global power.
Now, Biden would use indirect means to persuade China. Biden’s stance on human rights abuses in Xinjiang province against Uyghurs and other ethnic minorities, which he called genocide, and Beijing’s crackdown against Hong Kong’s pro-democracy activists would serve as bargaining chips to bring China on to the discussion table. Trump’s hardball policies against China have failed to get desired outcomes due to the dearth of support from its traditional allies. It would have been a different ball game if Trump had succeeded in getting the US allies on his side in his trade war tactics against China.
As the global power centre is shifting from the Atlantic to Pacific, Biden’s approach towards Indo-Pacific would remain more or less similar to that of Trump. In the military domain, it is in the long-term interest of the US to strengthen the QUAD (Quadrilateral alliance) to deter the dragon’s expansionist agenda. It is equally important for the new president-elect to integrate the US economy with its partners in the region, given the growing economic ties between Beijing and the other regional bigwigs.
On the one hand, with the recent regional pact RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership), China is leading the new era of trade liberalisation in the Asia-Pacific region and on the other hand, the European allies of the US have been tilting towards Beijing. Undoubtedly, the US would not join the RCEP as the trade pact is led by China, its rival. Biden might come up with a new version of the TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership). Earlier, Trump withdrew the US from the TPP citing massive unemployment and a possible flooding of foreign goods.
(The author is Director, Samudrala VK IAS Academy)
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