Editorial: Iran after Raisi

The potential power struggle within Iran will be keenly watched by the rest of the world, including India

The sudden death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash is expected to exacerbate the tensions in an already volatile region following the recent tit-for-tat exchange of drone and missile strikes with the long-time foe Israel. The tragic end to Raisi’s career, marked by a brutal crackdown on anti-government protests, mass executions of regime opponents and strict implementation of dress code for women, is also bound to deepen the internal turmoil and trigger a succession battle in a country run by the ultra-conservative clerics. Raisi, a hardliner who became the President in 2021, was widely seen as a contender to succeed the country’s ailing supreme spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei but faced internal opposition. Iranian law stipulates that if the President, who is number two in the hierarchy after the supreme leader, dies, power is transferred to the first Vice President and an election must be called within six months. Mohammad Mokhber, also a conservative politician who has been blamed in the past for Iran’s economic woes, has been chosen as the interim President till the elections are held. Even as Khamenei has tried to reassure the shocked Iranians that there would be no disruption to state affairs, the potential power struggle within Iran will be keenly watched by the rest of the world, including India. The internal power struggle in the coming days could impact everything, be it the war in the Middle East or the price of oil.

Whoever assumes Raisi’s mantle inherits limited levers of power because the ultimate decision-making authority in the Islamic Republic lies with the Supreme Leader. Foreign policy, especially in the region, is the preserve of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) who wield growing power. The potential successors include Sayyid Mojtaba Hosseini, the son of Khamenei. Given Iran’s growing importance in the geopolitics of the Middle East, its unrealised economic potential and the growing fragility of Khamenei, who has ruled Iran since 1989, the international community would watch with keen interest the supreme leader’s next steps. Even though Khamenei has the final say on foreign policy and Iran’s nuclear programme, age is not on his side. At 85, he needs younger leaders to steer the country out of myriad challenges. Raisi’s death comes weeks after Iran and Israel were involved in a direct confrontation. Iran has also been in the crosshairs of Israel over its support to Hamas, whose October 7 attack prompted a fierce Israeli retaliation that has ravaged Gaza. Tehran has been on American and Israeli scanners for decades for secretly enriching uranium to manufacture nuclear weapons. Israel has been trying to sabotage the alleged Iranian military nuclear weapons programme. Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, who was working on the country’s nuclear programme, was assassinated near Tehran in 2020. The Israeli government neither confirmed nor denied its involvement in the attack.

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