Editorial: Nepal’s musical chairs

While India is comfortable to strike terms of mutual understanding with Prachanda, Oli’s re-entry will call for caution.

Political stability has constantly eluded Nepal. The power games that the leaders with inflated egos play resemble musical chairs. In the ever-changing power dynamics, deals are made and unmade in quick succession. The latest political drama in the tiny Himalayan nation led to the fall of the government headed by Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ following his failure to win the vote of confidence. Under the watchful eyes of China, which played a role in brokering a peace deal among the communist parties, the Chairman of the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) KP Oli makes a comeback. According to the deal, Oli would govern for a year and a half, and set the ground for constitutional amendments and then hand over power to the Nepali Congress’ Sher Bahadur Deuba to oversee the 2027 elections. India has been closely watching the developments unfolding in Nepal, particularly in view of the growing anti-India rhetoric and the pro-China tilt that the neighbouring country has taken in the recent past. While India is comfortable to strike terms of mutual understanding with Prachanda, Oli’s re-entry will call for caution. In his tenure as Prime Minister in the past, he was known for his pro-China views and this was evident from the foreign policy outlook of his leadership of the CPN-UML too. Oli has served as the Prime Minister of Nepal on two occasions, from 2015-16 and 2018-21, before being ousted by the Supreme Court in a controversial ruling.

As Prime Minister, Oli took a hardline stance against India, particularly during the 2015 Nepal blockade, which he blamed on Indian interference. Given the vagaries of Nepali power politics, marked by fleeting alliances and frequent spells of instability, India must not lose sight of the new power equations and needs to keep an eye on the policy decisions of the new dispensation in the coming days in a competitive geopolitical landscape, with Beijing ever ready to expand its influence in the politics of the Himalayan nation. It must be pointed out that both Prachanda and Oli had deployed anti-Indian rhetoric in the past as a tool for domestic politicking. However, Prachanda is credited with having a pragmatic streak compared to his ideological fellow traveller Oli who wears ultra-nationalism on his sleeve. It was the Oli government in the past which raked up a territorial dispute by pushing a new map that marked some Indian territories as that of Nepal. When the NC and the CPN-UML signed a deal to form a new government, it was a foregone conclusion that Prachanda would lose the confidence vote. Political instability has been a constant feature since the country abolished the monarchy and turned into a republic in 2008. There have been over a dozen governments since then, evoking a sense of déjà vu every time there is a change of guard.

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