The 2024 Lok Sabha verdict was as much about the clash of political ideas as it was about the economic issues. While the post-poll analysis in the media is largely focused on politics, caste and community dynamics, the influence of the macro and micro economic issues on the poll outcome in different regions cannot be ignored. Growing unemployment, price rise, shrinking opportunities for the youth and farm distress were the major factors in the elections. For many on the ground, the undercurrents of discontent were unmistakable. In Uttar Pradesh, which handed out a major upset for the saffron party, rural distress influenced the voter’s mind. The people outside UP may find it difficult to process the defeat of BJP candidate in Faizabad, under which Ayodhya falls, because of all the hype surrounding the consecration of Ram temple. But, the political narrative around the temple did not help the local population struggling to meet their daily needs. Irrespective of the religious sentiments attached to the ‘Pran Pratishta’ ceremony, economic issues appeared to have played a role in Faizabad and other seats in the Ayodhya division. In other parts of the country, particularly in the Hindi heartland, the micro, small and medium enterprises were still reeling under the devastating impact of the double whammy of demonetisation and the Covid-19 pandemic. The BJP leadership must learn lessons from the sobering public verdict and focus on addressing the pressing economic issues in its third term instead of harping on divisive agendas.
According to a post-poll survey conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) and Lokniti, economic issues such as unemployment, high inflation and falling income levels played a key role in determining voters’ choices in the elections. These factors proved crucial as the ruling BJP, which was pinning its hopes on Hindutva and the charisma of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, fell short of securing a majority on its own. Unemployment was the main worry for 32% per cent of the respondents in the pre-poll survey; this dropped to 27% after the elections, possibly due to the employment-related promises made by various political parties. The saffron party needs to realise that the PM’s aura is no longer what it was a decade ago and it can’t always rely on his mass appeal to win elections. It will have to walk the talk on generating employment opportunities and taming inflation. The NDA 3.0 has its task cut out. It will need to focus on boosting private consumption, employment, exports, private investment and come up with a debt reduction roadmap. Viksit Bharat (making India a developed country by 2047) is too distant a goal. The country’s young citizens, in particular, can’t wait too long for the fulfilment of guarantees of high-quality education, world-class infrastructure facilities and lucrative employment and entrepreneurial avenues.