INCOIS issues special El Niño Bulletin warning of marine, coastal impacts

INCOIS has released a specialised El Niño bulletin warning of above-normal Indian Ocean temperatures until 2027. The developing climate event could trigger coral bleaching, marine heatwaves, reduced fish catches, and increased coastal erosion on India's east coast while benefiting maritime operations on the west coast.

Hyderabad: Hyderabad-based Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) has started releasing Specialised El Niño Bulletins to highlight the possible impacts of the ongoing El Niño on the Maritime Sectors.

The bulletin confirms the El Niño event continues to develop and is expected to peak in the winter season. As a result, the sea surface temperature in the Indian Ocean will be higher than normal until April/May 2027.

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The marine ecosystem in the northern Indian Ocean (both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal) is likely to be under thermal stress in the coming months, especially during March-May 2027. This can lead to increased bleaching of coral reefs, more episodes of marine heat waves, and a reduction in the fish catch (particularly sardine and mackerel species) due to migration of fish stock to suitable habitats or due to a decrease in recruitment.

Further, the fish may not reach the desired sizes due to changes in the marine environmental conditions related to the developing El Niño.

The sea state in the Bay of Bengal will remain rough during the monsoon season, and there are chances for increased coastal erosion and flooding on the east coast of India. On a positive note, the sea state in the Arabian Sea and west coast is likely to be calmer than usual, which can increase the window for operations of various marine sectors. Coastal erosion and inundation are likely to be less on the west coast during the ongoing monsoon season.

The next specialised bulletin will be issued in the second week of July.