Indo-German study predicts monsoon to hit Telangana after June 20

The unique monsoon onset forecast can provide valuable insights that the government can leverage for strategic planning and disaster response, it adds.

Hyderabad: The monsoon is changing in accordance with climate change, according to a 10-year Indo-German study, which also says the onset of this year’s monsoon will be delayed in Telangana.

The study also stresses on forecasts that help farmers choose the right time for planting their crops. The unique monsoon onset forecast can provide valuable insights that the government can leverage for strategic planning and disaster response, it adds.

---

According to a post by former Advisor (Agriculture) to the State government, Ramesh Chennamaneni, the study, stating that very strong monsoon rain events – more than 80mm/day, currently occurring once in two years – were the major causes of flooding. The study also cautions that the State should be prepared for a 60 per cent increase in the frequency of these events until 2050.

“Extremely hot days – currently 1.2 days/year according to the IMD-definition – cause direct adverse health effects and a multitude of indirect impacts (accidents, labor slackening etc.). Compared to the average of days now, for the high-emission scenario, we expect about 20 days until 2050 and 40 in 2100. For the low-emission scenario, the number with values of 8 and 13 days respectively are still a big challenge,” the study says.

“These outcomes stress the necessity for refining the criteria of monsoon onset, withdrawal definition accordingly. Climatological norms, which are a 30-year average of a weather variable, must be reconsidered in the context of climate change. In a warming world, severe storms and floods during monsoon retreat are becoming more frequent such as current ones in Telangana. A long-term forecast could help Government to do strategic planning, consolidate resources, and strengthen capacity to respond effectively to disasters,” Chennamaneni’s post says, quoting Elena Surovyatkina, leader of the Indo-German study team.

“Based on current conditions, it is anticipated that there will be a delay in the onset of the monsoon this year 2024 in Telangana, Central India, and especially in Delhi. The reason for the delayed monsoon is the negative anomaly of temperature over central and especially Northern parts of India from March to April, as shown on the map below. Thus, it will push the onset of the monsoon season to the end of June. Additionally, the dry spell in these regions during June will also contribute to the delay,” the study says.

Accordingly, Chennamaneni says quoting the study, it was crucial for farmers to have information about the timing of dry spells and the onset of the monsoon in their regions, as they occur at different times in different parts of India.

“Such forecasts help them choose the right time for planting their crops. The unique monsoon onset forecast can provide valuable insights that the government can leverage for strategic planning and disaster response,” his post points out.