Its concept of Hindutva is steeped in Hindi and many of the Sangh leaders do not understand the ethos of Dravidian languages
By Amitava Mukherjee
In 2023, an identity question is likely to raise its head in the BJP as the saffron party starts its attempts to make its presence felt in South India. That the party has reasons to feel uncomfortable about its future performance in the Hindi heartland becomes noticeable to any discerning eye from its all-out attempts to win Tripura and perform creditably in Meghalaya as the whole of north-east, including Assam, sends 24 MPs to the Lok Sabha. But much more difficult for the BJP will be South India having a tally of 129 MPs, of which the BJP has only 29 in the present Lok Sabha.
Sights on South
Why has South India become so important for the BJP in 2023? Well, one reason is certainly Narendra Modi’s consciousness about his own image. Last year his party had a record-breaking victory in Gujarat. Still, Modi is aware of the fact that he is no Atal Bihari Vajpayee or Lal Krishna Advani whose acceptability in the Hindi heartland was much more than what Modi enjoys. In large swaths of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, Modi is still identified with Gujarat.
Secondly, the Prime Minister has a contender in Uttar Pradesh. It is common knowledge that off and on Yogi Adityanath’s name gets bandied around in Sangh Parivar circles as a probable successor to Modi. Since Uttar Pradesh, due to the largest number of MPs that it sends to the Lok Sabha, holds much more electoral significance to the BJP than Gujarat, Modi will naturally try to expand his reach beyond the traditional base areas of his party.
Main Hurdles
In the midst of brouhaha over Gujarat, certain points regarding some recent by-elections have largely gone unnoticed. In seven by-elections held at the fag end of 2022, the BJP won four but lost three to the opposition – one each to the RJD in Bihar, Uddhav Thackeray-led faction of the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra and the Bharat Rashtra Samiti in Telangana. Of them, the BJP’s loss to the BRS in Munugode in Telangana is the most important because the saffron party is leaving no stone unturned to find feet in the State. The loss in Munugode points out to many in-built shortcomings the BJP is likely to face in its attempt to find feet in South India.
Let us look at the principal roadblocks before the BJP in South India. The first is its identification with Hindi, an aspect some BJP leaders have expressed on quite a few occasions. Its concept of Hindutva is steeped in Hindi and many of the Sangh Parivar leaders do not understand the ethos of Dravidian languages. Just look at the leadership structure of the BJP. Most of their top-level leaders are from the north. Venkaiah Naidu was from the South. But it would be better to call him an exception among the host of Hindi heartland leaders. The second reason, emanating from the first, is the BJP’s love for the Hindi language and the South Indians’ preference for English. A large number of States use English for government functions and it is pertinent to note that the BJP is not in power in most of them.
But the greatest hurdle before the BJP will be the sort of sub-national concept that reigns strongly in some parts of South India. Don’t forget the Dravid nationalism or the resentment that may soon take hold of the Kannadigas against a steady ingress of ‘outsiders’ into their cities and cultures. Will positioning replicas of the Golconda fort with a BJP flag atop and a Bharatmata picture in front of the BJP national executive meeting in Hyderabad cut much ice? Or will the existence of replicas of Kakatiya torans and the Ramappa temple at the same site carry any conviction with the people of Telangana? The future will tell the answer.
Much will depend on the BJP’s performance in the coming Karnataka election. Electoral history points out that the BJP does not perform well against any strong regional party. An example is West Bengal. Other examples are Bihar and the whole of South India. In Karnataka, the circumstances under which Basavaraj Bommai was brought in as the State Chief Minister did not present the BJP in any resplendent light. There is a possibility that the Congress and the Janata Dal (Secular) might pull in opposite directions. But the JD(S) has weakened to a great extent. In Karnataka, the Congress is a strong outfit, vastly different from the state of the party at the national level.
Strong Regional Parties
Frankly speaking, the BJP has no future in Tamil Nadu where it tries to have a piggyback ride on the AIADMK’s shoulders and hopes for better days ahead in the absence of Karunanidhi and Jayalalithaa. Tamil Nadu has a long history of struggle against Hindi nationalism. Moreover, the Dravidian movement in the State has certain caste connotations which go against the general public perception of the BJP’s social base. The saffron party’s line will be to try to equate the lower caste Dravidian movement with Hinduism. Ultimately, it may not cut much ice.
Similar is the case in Kerala. The LDF has a solid base among the Ezavahas and the UDF among the Nairs. In this scenario, the BJP is trying to consolidate Hindu votes. But the problem for the party will be the minorities who constitute nearly 45 per cent of the State’s electorate. In such a scenario, the BJP is trying to endear itself to a certain section of Christians and raise the bogey of corruption charges against the LDF government. But it should be aware of the fact that both the LDF and the UDF often transfer their votes to each other depending on the exigencies of situations.
The Bharat Rashtra Samithi in Telangana, the DMK in Tamil Nadu, the LDF and the UDF in Kerala are too strong for the BJP. To defeat any of them the BJP will have to get more than 45 per cent of votes in each of these States, except in Karnataka where the party is sufficiently strong. Can the BJP really achieve this feat?