The pandemic and Ukraine war have only delayed carbon reduction efforts globally as coal is being used instead of gas due to scarcity created by war.
By Dr Oruganty Prasada Rao
The COP27 or the ‘Conference of the Parties’, to be held in Egypt from Nov 6 to 18, will address quite a few topics: just transition, food security, climate finance, clean energy, water security, and climate vulnerability but the main focus will be on ‘Green Hydrogen’. However, it is not possible to tackle the impacts of climate change by mitigation alone, adaptation is unavoidable. The COP27 needs to discuss this aspect also.
The COP is hosted by a different nation every year ever since the first meeting – ‘COP1’ – took place in Germany in 1995. The last meeting, COP26, was held in Glasgow in 2021. The ‘parties’ are the governments around the world that have signed the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, a treaty agreed upon in 1994 to mitigate the impacts of climate change.
Growing with Fossil Fuels
The global fossil fuel consumption in 1850 was negligible, 569 Terawatt Hours (TWh), all from coal, compared with 1,36,018 TWh in 2021, nearly equally shared by coal, oil and gas. This has led to an increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Global warming is directly proportional to carbon dioxide concentration, which has increased from 285 in 1850 to 416 ppm (parts per million) in September 2022. The enhanced greenhouse effect caused by increased concentration of carbon dioxide, increased the global temperature. Global warming leads to climate change.
Tackling Change
The impacts of climate change can be tackled basically in two ways — mitigation or adaptation or both. Mitigation measures centre around reducing carbon dioxide emissions because the increase in global temperature depends upon its concentration in the atmosphere. Adaptation will require adjusting to expected effects. A few examples are:
High Temperatures
The Paris Agreement of 2015 requires countries to keep global temperature rise this century to less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900), and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. Earth’s global surface temperature has now increased by around 1.1°C compared with the average in 1850–1900.
The basic principle in limiting the rise in global temperature is to produce as less carbon dioxide as possible from energy usage. Carbon dioxide, compared with other greenhouse gases such as methane and nitrous oxide, is produced in large quantities and stays in the atmosphere for a longer period (100-1,000 years) whereas other gases get decomposed fast. Therefore, carbon dioxide is of major concern. Even if the zero carbon emission situation is achieved today, the existing carbon dioxide present in the atmosphere will continue to cause global warming for a long period of time.
The pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war have only delayed carbon reduction efforts globally, and as coal is being used in place of gas due to scarcity created by war, there’s increased emission of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Therefore, adaptation to increased temperatures is required in addition to mitigation measures. The adaptation measures include changing the timings for working outside like construction and agricultural activities to cope with high ambient temperatures.
Sea level Rise
The mean sea level rose to 101.1 mm in 2021 compared with 1993 due to the melting of Arctic ice and glaciers and thermal expansion. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, sea levels will likely rise by at least 1 foot (0.3 m) above the levels seen in 2000 by the start of the next century, while the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates they will rise by 16 to 25 inches (40-63 cm). As many as 250 million people, spanning continents, could be ‘directly affected’ by 2100.
According to the union of Concerned Scientists, the Maldives, the flattest country on Earth, will lose around 77% of its land area by 2100. To project the vulnerability of the sea-level nation to the world, then President Mohamed Nasheed of the Maldives, held a cabinet meeting in October 2009 on global carbon emissions under water. Adaptation measures include sea walls and floating homes – the Netherlands is working on them while Bangladesh is experimenting with floating agricultural farms. Permanent migration of people from low to higher elevations is also a must.
Rains, Floods and Droughts
Pakistan is a recent example of flooding due to excessive rainfall. One-third of the country was inundated affecting 33 million people and losses estimated at $40 billion. Such situations require the shifting of millions of people to safer places and large-scale dewatering of stagnated water and rebuilding of the infrastructure. A number of rivers and lakes are drying up due to heat and drought, for example, Colorado river, Rio Grande river, Indus and Yellow river. Storage of rainwater can take care of floods and drought.
Heatwaves and Forest Fires
The United States and Japan saw the worst heatwave in 150 years, besides Canada, the UK and Europe. Temperatures went above 400C up to 470C in Portugal. The fires in parts of France, Spain, and Portugal destroyed more land in 2022 than in all of 2021, ie, 5,17,881 hectares, equivalent to Trinidad and Tobago. Adaptation in terms of shifting people to safer places and new methods for extinguishing fires are required, like a sprinkler system. Houses near forest areas need to be made fireproof.
Agriculture
Abnormally, hot summers and very cold winters or warm winters and chilly simmers, floods, excessive moisture and drought reduce crop productivity and increase pest infestations. Adaptive measures needed are: development of climate-resilient crops tolerant to water deficiency or excess of it and high temperatures, suitable pesticides, storing rainwater, enhanced observation and early warning systems.
Health
Climate change affects the social and environmental determinants of health. Greater access to safe drinking water and sanitation, enhancement of public health infrastructure, affordable health insurance, sustainable urban development and warning systems on impending climate changes are a few adaptation measures.
Migration
People living in coastal areas need to migrate to safer places. Similarly, people are affected by drought, forest fires and drying up of rivers. Animals and plants too may have to be moved out.
Both mitigation and adaptation require trillions of dollars. The COP27 need to persuade the developed countries to fulfil their funding commitment. They are not doing any favour because they are the culprits of climate change. The polluter has to pay.
The climate change we are seeing now is man-made by burning fossil fuels after 1850. Increase in concentration of carbon dioxide gas disturbs the equilibrium of the atmosphere and threatens the existence of life on Earth. The rise in temperature now is 1.10°C and the world is experiencing severe heatwaves, forest fires, excessive floods, heat-related deaths, droughts, etc. One can imagine the severity of impact if it reaches 2.4-2.60°C as anticipated.