Opinion: India, US make a quantum leap

The collaboration positions both countries to better compete against China’s growing dominance in quantum technology

By Sudhanshu Kumar, Keith King

There was a time when technologies like quantum computing, cryptography, sensing and networking were confined to the university corridors and research labs. That era is over. These technologies are now a pillar of national security, economic competitiveness, and even geopolitical dominance. Countries that lead in quantum will shape encryption standards, surveillance capabilities, and next-generation warfare.

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The India-US quantum technology cooperation is one of the most significant bilateral partnerships in emerging technologies. This strategic alliance encompasses quantum computing, quantum communication, quantum sensing, and quantum materials development, with both nations recognising quantum technology as a critical component of national security and economic competitiveness.

The iCET Foundation

The foundation of India-US quantum cooperation rests on the US-India Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET), established following the May 2022 announcement by President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Beyond diplomatic symbolism, it includes two key mechanisms:

• Indo-US Quantum Coordination Mechanism: Is a collaborative platform fostering research and linking industry, academia, and government entities from both countries. Its second meeting took place in Washington in August 2024, underscoring sustained engagement.
• US-India Science and Technology Endowment Fund (USISTEF): Has already invested over USD 2 million into quantum and AI research, with six groundbreaking quantum projects.

In January 2025, both nations issued a joint declaration emphasising enhanced cooperation in quantum science and technology. It promised to push the boundaries of cooperation in quantum communication, post-quantum migration and security, and digital twins.

Significant Barriers

However, this partnership is not without friction. One of the most significant barriers is the complex web of export controls. For instance, in September 2024, the US Bureau of Industry and Security tightened its grip on quantum technologies restricting the export of key equipment, materials, and software used in quantum computers.

While the US has eased technology transfer restrictions for close allies like Australia and the UK, India faces additional scrutiny due to its cybersecurity standards, and defence ties. In quantum cooperation, trust is measured in secure supply chains and regulatory alignment —not just diplomatic intent.

With a combined market opportunity exceeding USD 100 billion, the India-US quantum partnership aims to drive joint innovation and build critical supply chains that don’t run through Beijing

Another sensitive domain is intellectual property. As private companies engage in R&D partnerships, concerns about IP protection, data privacy, and dual-use applications may strain collaboration unless clear frameworks are established.

The scarcity of talent is another challenge. In the US, job openings outnumber qualified candidates by a ratio of 3:1. In India, the National Quantum Mission has mobilised 152 researchers across 43 institutions, but the pipeline is thin. Even among STEM graduates, awareness and skill in quantum technology remain limited, as most academic programmes lack industry-aligned training. Experts suggest that international cooperation is crucial in addressing this talent gap.

Complementary Strengths

Despite challenges, the alliance offers complementary strengths. The US brings deep capital, world-class labs, and a thriving private sector. India offers a growing pool of skilled engineers, cost-effective research, and a startup ecosystem eager for breakthroughs. Together, they form a coalition not just of convenience, but of conviction: a belief that democratic values and open collaboration can outpace closed, state-driven models.

Strategically, both countries share similar democratic values and face common security challenges, particularly regarding China’s growing quantum capabilities. This alignment facilitates cooperation in sensitive areas like quantum cryptography and post-quantum security measures under the “store now decrypt later” framework adopted by different nation-states.

Interestingly, India’s engagement with the US complements —rather than replaces — and keeps the door to maintain strategic autonomy, including partnerships with France, Russia, and the European Union in quantum and AI governance.

India’s National Quantum Mission, which aims to develop intermediate-scale quantum computers with 50-1000 physical qubits by 2031, establish satellite-based secure quantum communications over 2,000 kilometres, and create multi-node quantum networks, will benefit from US collaboration. Future programmes may include larger-scale joint development projects involving quantum hardware communication systems.

Long-term Vision

Yet the road ahead is not without risks. India must avoid strategic overdependence on the US, balancing its ties with domestic innovation and alternative partners. Political volatility in either nation could disrupt cooperation. Shared research may face cyber espionage threats, requiring stronger safeguards and mutual trust.

This cooperation is based on the long-term vision of strategic technological independence where both countries aim to reduce dependence on Chinese quantum supply chains. The collaboration positions both countries to compete effectively with China’s substantial quantum investments, estimated at USD 15 billion compared with the combined US-India investment of approximately USD 5.75 billion.

The global quantum market is projected to reach USD 106 billion by 2040. Therefore, the India-US partnership is well-positioned to capture a significant share of this market. But it’s not just about economics. The security and geopolitical implications of quantum computing are immense.

At its core, the India-US quantum partnership is about the idea of independence too, which aims at building supply chains that don’t run through Beijing, and ecosystems that can weather the storms of global politics. It is not just a technological partnership but also a story of ambition, of breakthroughs and a shared future in the world’s most transformative technology.

(Sudhanshu Kumar is a PhD scholar at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, focusing on AI and Geopolitics, and Visiting Fellow at MGIMO, Moscow. Keith King is a Senior Technology Advisor and Strategic Architect, specialising in secure communications, and AI governance, and has held leadership roles in US national security and defence initiatives)