Post-World War II, Europe invested in regional cooperation, but now with Russian invasion of Ukraine, even pacifist countries like Germany have decided to increase their defence budget.
By Dhananjay Tripathi
Even after more than 200 days of the Russia-Ukraine war, there is no sign of a resolution. Violent conflict of any nature has its cost, and it is nearly impossible to predict the outcome of such events as we can witness now. Even after America’s clear warning, the best of experts initially believed that Russia would never start a war in a region from where it is making substantial money. The energy trade between Russia and Europe was viewed as a credible deterrence.
Before the start of the war, Europe’s 40% gas and oil requirements were fulfilled by Russia. According to the World Economic Forum, the EU was importing energy from Russia worth some $108 billion. If we get deeper into this data, it will appear that Russia defied economic rationale by invading Ukraine. For Russia, energy export was almost 50% of its total exports and 14% of its GDP. Better trade ties improve political relations is often repeated by a student of the political economy. At least, this failed in the case of Russia and Europe.
Geopolitics over Geo-Economics
The European response regarding strategically siding with Ukraine and imposing sanctions on Russia was on the expected lines. The European countries are now preparing themselves to substantially reduce their energy dependence on Russia, which will have repercussions for the Russian economy. In future, the commercial linkage between Russia and Europe will not be healthy enough to influence the political connection. It is a visible turn from geo-economics to geopolitics and was avoidable. Still, Russian President Vladimir Putin prioritised geopolitics over geo-economics.
Putin’s popularity rating has gone up, and reports suggest most Russians endorse his action in Ukraine. Interestingly, his decision to invade Ukraine has not harmed his image in domestic politics. While nationalism always has strong appeal in any political system, it has a shelf-life. Let us not forget that after 1991 for the first time, Russians may have to face hostile West. The sanctions will affect their life in the long run. Also, for the first time after the Afghan invasion of 1979, Russia involved itself in a significant military offensive and lost more than 25,000 soldiers.
In the same way, the Russian economy has not suffered much, the crisis fuelled the energy prices, and the Russian oil industry is a beneficiary. Again, the question is, how long? The West will keep making it difficult for the rest of the world to do business with Russia.
In this discussion, it is also important to note that amongst a section of intellectuals, the opinion is that the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was provocative, and war should not be blamed entirely on Putin. While the NATO expansion is debatable and needs scrutiny, the invasion of a sovereign country is an equally serious issue. Around 6,000 Ukrainian civilians have died in this war, and some 6.6 million have been turned homeless. These figures are alarming and cannot be justified.
The New Aggression
The war started on 24 February 2022, and Russia, despite its military superiority, had failed to make a strategic headway. The movement of the Russian army was not swift, and they continued to face strong resistance. The people of Ukraine are determined to fight back, and they are supported in all possible ways by the West. This has frustrated Putin, and recently in a belligerent speech, he said that the West is trying to disintegrate Russia as it did in 1991 with the Soviet Union.
Additionally, he said ‘neo-Nazi’ forces are fighting against Russia in Ukraine, and he wants to mobilise reservists and will not hesitate to use any weapon if the territorial integrity of Russia comes under threat. President Putin blamed Washington, London and Brussels for conspiracy and for not allowing Ukraine to negotiate peace with Russia. He emphatically added, “we will certainly make use of all weapon systems available to us. This is not a bluff”.
Now Russia is mobilising some 3,00,000 reservists who will soon join some 2,00,000 of its troops present in Ukraine. One can draw two clear conclusions from this new Russian move –one is that Putin is unwilling to compromise, and secondly, he can use deadly weapons to ensure Russian victory. These are worrying signs for the international community but more so for Europe.
Changing Europe
Post-World War II, Europe invested in regional cooperation and became the world’s most stable region. Conflict resolution was focused, but after the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014, European countries increased their defence budget. Now, with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, even pacifist countries like Germany have decided to increase their defence budget, taking it to 2% of the GDP by putting some 100 billion Euros into it.
Likewise, there has been an addition to the defence spending of France. Moreover, the Scandinavian countries too expressed willingness to join NATO. Let us not forget that the present Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Liz Truss was quite critical of Russia when she was heading the foreign ministry of her country. These are some early movements towards the militarisation of Europe and a cause for concern.
It is important to note that Europe is not a peripheral region of the world, and such a significant shift in its strategic orientation will have multiple effects on the rest of the world. Putin by his act started a process that will have negative fallout for Europe, Russia and others. One thing that could halt it is a ceasefire and the start of a talk between Russia and Ukraine, with the involvement of other countries. From the Global South, two countries – India and China – can play an important role. For India, it is time to talk firmly with Putin urging him to stop the war.