Opinion: The J& K cauldron

Demand for statehood, autonomy and restoration of Article 370 will dominate the post-poll scene

By Amitava Mukherjee

Time for Narendra Modi does not seem to be propitious now. A few months ago during the last general election, he thought he was on top of the world. So he called himself a ‘godsend’ and averred that he was not a normal biological human being. But the election result came as a great leveller. The RSS, so it seems, has decided to cut Modi to size. Mohan Bhagwat, the RSS Sarsanghchalak, says “One should not claim himself to be god. Let people decide whether there is god in you”.

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Another set of elections is approaching. This time Jammu & Kashmir, Haryana, Maharashtra and Jharkhand are going to polls. This will be another acid test for Modi, particularly the election of Jammu & Kashmir after the abrogation of Article 370 and the abolition of its status of statehood. This election is sure to evoke international interest. If the BJP and its supposed allies fail to impress, then the time for Narendra Modi will be harder.

Silver Linings
Democratic exercise after a long time has, however, provided some silver linings in the simmering cauldron of Jammu & Kashmir politics. For the Indian political parties, this is a test of their farsightedness. The last Lok Sabha election witnessed a big jump in voter participation compared with what happened in 2019 when the State electorate largely boycotted the parliamentary election. This time the Srinagar constituency witnessed 38% votes (14% in 2019), Baramullah 59% (34% previously) and Anantnag 54% (8% in 2019).

How would one explain it? In a word the people of Jammu & Kashmir chose democratic means to express their disapproval or approval of government policies instead of adopting a confrontational attitude with the state. This is a welcome development and the BJP-led central government should encourage it even if the coming Assembly election result negates the steps the central government has taken in recent times.

The BJP is obviously banking on the prospect of a fractured mandate. In the last parliamentary election, the combined vote share of Mehbooba Mufti’s Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) and Omar Abdullah’s National Conference (NC) reached more than 70% mark in Srinagar and Anantnag-Rajouri constituencies which contain two-thirds of the Valley’s 47 Assembly seats.

However, some local political demands have left the PDP out of the NC-Congress alliance, a thing Congress did not like but was forced to acquiesce in. This may influence the outcome of election results in the Kashmir Valley as the PDP is showing signs of rejuvenation, particularly after its vote share in the 2024 Lok Sabha poll jumped to 8.48% compared to the 3.38% votes it could garner in 2019. So the PDP might eat into the vote share of the NC-Congress alliance.

Matters for BJP
The importance of this year’s Assembly election lies in the fact that if the BJP fares badly in the Jammu region then it will be more difficult for it to counter the demand for restoration of Article 370 and autonomy for Jammu & Kashmir which is sure to come from the Congress, PDP and the NC. In the Jammu region also, the BJP’s influence is declining. It won the Udhampur Lok Sabha seat in 2024 but its vote percentage declined by nearly 10% while the percentage of votes of the Congress rose by almost identical margin. If the BJP-allied parties fail to do well in the Valley then the entire rationale of whatever steps the Narendra Modi government has taken in regard to Jammu & Kashmir will come into question.

Under such a circumstance the presence of the Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) led by Sheikh Abdul Rashid, popularly called Engineer Rashid, has generated much interest. A civil engineer by profession, Rashid was lodged in jail on charges of terror funding but has recently been released on bail. He won the Baramullah seat of the Valley in the last parliamentary election in absentia and from jail defeating Omar Abdullah of the NC and Sajjad Lone of the Peoples’ Conference.

If the BJP and its supposed allies fail to impress, then the time for Narendra Modi will be harder

Moreover, his party did very well in 14 Assembly segments of the Valley during the last parliamentary election and may turn out to be a deciding factor in these constituencies this time too. He is expected to cut into the vote banks of both the NC and the PDP.

So Mehbooba Mufti is rattled. But both Mehbooba and Omar Abdullah had once stood by Engineer Rashid. Mehbooba is also worried about Jamaat-i-Islami candidates who will contest as independents although in many places the support base of the Jamaat and the PDP is almost the same. But it will not be easy for Rashid to win seats this time as his release from prison will be described by the NC, Congress and the PDP as a gift to him by the BJP. This will certainly cut at the root of Rashid’s support base in the Valley.

Helping Hands
The BJP knows that this time too it will not be able to cut its teeth in the Valley. So it is eagerly looking forward to its allies like the Apni Party and Peoples’ Conference doing well in the hustings. Whatever may be the allegations against the AIP by the NC and the PDP, Engineer Rashid is unlikely to hold out any helping hand to the BJP after the poll. But the spectre of a post-poll split in the AIP cannot be ruled out. However, given the volatile situation in the Kashmir Valley, all the mainstream parties should desist from politicking in the Valley.

So far as the strategic scenario in J&K is concerned, the Valley is always an internationally sensitive point. The BJP’s attempt to penetrate into the mindset of the Valley people through allies has so far failed. The Peoples’ Conference lost in its own stronghold of Baramullah in the last Lok Sabha election. The Apni Party candidates lost their security deposits. Pathetic is the condition of Ghulam Nabi Azad, a former Congressman who left his parent party, became close to the BJP and formed his own Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP). His party contested the last Lok sabha election in the Valley but lost in all three seats. According to information, he found it hard to get people to agree to fight the coming election under the DPAP banner.

The post-poll scenario in Jammu & Kashmir is expected to witness further strengthening of the demand for statehood, autonomy and restoration of Article 370. The scenario will be tricky. Tact plus far-sight, not any shrill slogan or allegation, are the needs of the hour.

(The author is a senior journalist and commentator)