Telangana’s population growth nearing zero: Shocking decline in birth rates and fertility by 2035

By 2031-35, Telangana State's population growth rate, defined as the pace at which the population increases over time, is projected to decline sharply, nearing zero at 0.3.

Hyderabad: In the coming years, Telangana State will experience a significant decline or slowing down of the population growth, as key demographic indicators that influence population including birth of children, number of people who die and total fertility rates are projected to decline sharply to record levels.

By 2031-35, the population growth rate, which is defined as the rate at which population increases over a period of time, will almost come to Zero (0.3) in Telangana State.

---

By the same time, the Telangana State will be at the bottom three (along with Andhra Pradesh) in India to have the lowest Crude Birth Rate (CBR), which is the number of live births per thousand people in a population over a period of time.

The CBR in Telangana State has declined steadily from 15.7 births in 2011-15 to a projected 10.2 by 2031-35, which means that only 10 live births will take place for 1, 000 people in Telangana. Demographers point out that drop in birth of the number of children in a year is a crucial factor that indicates the slowing down of the population.

The ‘Population Projections for India and States 2011-35’, report by Census of India, indicates the all important fertility rates among women will also drop significantly in Telangana State, mirroring a similar trend all over the Country.

The Total Fertility Rates (TFR), which is the average number of children that a woman is likely to have in her lifetime, in Telangana State will drop to 1.5 by 2031. The TFR of 1.5 is an indication that fertility rates have reached below replacement levels. As States develop economically, women get better access to health and education, fertility rates begin to fall, a phenomenon seen across the world, public health officials here noted.

Commenting on the drop of TFR, noted statistical platform ‘Data for India’ said “When a country’s TFR drops to 2.1, meaning that women will have an average of 2.1 children over their lifetimes, demographers say that the country has reached ‘replacement fertility’. This is a key milestone. If fertility falls below that level, the population will begin to decline in absolute numbers”.

Apart from CBR and TFR, another major factor influencing slowing down of population growth is the number of people who die. Needless to say, like all Indian States, Telangana too will witness a drop in the number of people who die, because of increase in life expectancy.

Back 2011-15, the average life expectancy among men in Telangana State was 67 years, which will increase to 71.40 years by 2031. Similarly, the life expectancy of women will improve from 71 (2011-15) to 75.60 (2031-35) in Telangana State.

Population Growth Rate: 7.1 (2011-15); 5.4 (2016-20); 3.5 (2021.25); 1.7 (2026-30) and 0.3 (2031-35).

Crude Birth Rate: 15.7 (2011-15); 14.6 (2016-20); 12.8 (2021.25); 11.3 (2026-30) and 10.2 (2031-35).

Crude Death Rate: 7.3 (2011-15); 7.5 (2016-20); 7.7 (2021.25); 8.1 (2026-30) and 8.6 (2031-35).

Infant Mortality Rate: 39 (2011-15); 35 (2016-20); 32 (2021.25); 29 (2026-30) and 27 (2031-35).

Under 5-mortality Rate: 43 (2011-15); 39 (2016-20); 35 (2021.25); 32 (2026-30) and 30 (2031-35).

Total Fertility Rate: 1.68 (2011-15); 1.61 (2016-20); 1.54 (2021.25); 1.51 (2026-30) and 1.50 (2031-35).

Life expectancy (males): 67.10 (2011-15); 68.60 (2016-20); 69.60 (2021.25); 70.60 (2026-30) and 71.40 (2031-35).

Life expectancy (females): 71.10 (2011-15); 72.40 (2016-20); 73.60 (2021.25); 74.60 (2026-30) and 75.60 (2031-35).