Editorial: India faces a new demographic challenge

Declining fertility rates and longer life expectancies present a complex situation for India, necessitating provisions for social security and healthcare for the increasing elderly population

For long, policymakers took comfort in the fact that India’s large population of youth gave it a distinct demographic advantage. However, this narrative is changing. The country may well be staring at a serious demographic challenge because of the steadily declining fertility rate. Latest data shows that it has now fallen below the replacement level. This means that the country will turn into an ageing society in the next three decades. The latest Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report reveals that India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has declined to 1.9, which is well below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman. For the first time, rural India’s TFR has touched the replacement rate of 2.1, while urban India’s rate is even lower at 1.5. Clearly, a quiet demographic transformation is underway. A report in the medical journal, The Lancet, has projected that India’s TFR — the average number of children born to a woman — will fall to 1.29 in 2050. One in five people in India will be above the age of 60 in 2050. This reflects a demographic shift with profound implications for the country’s health, fiscal, and gender policies. In 2023, the UN Population Fund’s (UNPF) India Ageing Report projected that the number of elderly will more than double from 149 million in 2022 to 347 million by mid-century. This poses a challenge to policymakers. With a lower number of births, the youth population will keep shrinking.

There are multiple reasons for the falling fertility rate. Rising urbanisation, growing costs of raising children, women’s education, and availability of contraceptives have altered the traditional family dynamics in India. Women’s increasing participation in the workforce is leading to delayed marriages, thereby reducing the reproductive window. Besides, fewer children and a focus on higher education ensure upward mobility. While this decline is a sign of progress, especially in terms of healthcare and gender empowerment, it carries complex implications for economic growth. As the size of the youth population falls, the number of older adults will surpass the young. India will need to reassess its social-security focus and make investments to provide the growing number of older adults with improved access to healthcare, income security, and social safety-nets. India’s fertility numbers fell from nearly 6.2 in 1950 to just under 2 in 2021. The combination of declining fertility rates and longer life expectancies presents a complex situation, necessitating provisions for social security and healthcare for the increasing elderly population. There is also a need to generate employment opportunities that effectively utilise the skills of this demographic. Global experience suggests that once fertility rates fall below the replacement level, it is almost impossible to set them back. India’s declining fertility rate is broadly in tune with the global trend. Experts have warned that the TFR could touch a worrying level of 1.04 by 2100.

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