Opinion: A flicker of hope from COP28

The true gauge of COP28’s influence, however, will be seen in its effect on public and private investment strategies

By P K Joshi

The 28th Conference of the Parties (COP28) of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) concluded recently in Dubai, marking the largest climate meeting worldwide. COP28 drew in more than 97,000 participants, with a significant portion comprising fossil fuel lobbyists.

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On the inaugural day, an agreement was reached to operationalise the ‘Loss and Damage Fund’ — a hard-won acknowledgement after 28 years that those accountable for the highest emissions should bear the associated costs. Despite this milestone, the fund amassed a mere $475 million, significantly below the annual estimated damage of $400 billion in developing countries, with no commitment to augment funding levels. The US contribution, at $17.5 million, appears meagre, especially considering its status as the leading contributor to cumulative GHG emissions. In contrast, the European Union committed nearly $275 million, while the host country UAE pledged an additional $100 million. Other notable contributors include Germany ($100 million), the UK ($70 million) and Japan ($10 million). The fund will be hosted by the World Bank and used for developing and vulnerable nations grappling with the substantial impacts of climate change.

Global Stocktake

The conference endorsed a decision regarding the outcomes of the inaugural Global Stocktake (GST) under the Paris Agreement. The GST, a two-year process, assesses progress in mitigation, adaptation, and climate finance while charting the course ahead. Recognising the imperative to curtail global warming to 1.5 degrees C, the parties acknowledged the need to reduce global GHG emissions by 43% below 1990 levels by 2030. They were urged to contribute to tripling global renewable energy capacity — from 3,400 GW at present to 11,000 GW by 2030 — and doubling the global rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030. A just, orderly, and equitable transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems was emphasised, with the aim of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.

Although the potential role of ‘transitional fuels’ in facilitating the energy transition and ensuring energy security was recognised, it faced opposition and wasn’t a resounding victory. Furthermore, the parties adopted a framework for the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), outlining 2030 targets for national assessments, adaptation implementation and evaluations. The decision underscores the significance of safeguarding and restoring nature and ecosystems, emphasising efforts to halt and reverse deforestation by 2030.

India’s Initiatives

Building on earlier initiatives such as the International Solar Alliance (ISA), Coalition of Disaster-Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI) and Lifestyle for Environment (LIFE) Campaign, India, during the G20 summit, proposed climate-related measures like tripling renewable energy and endorsing the Global Biofuels Alliance. At COP28, Prime Minister Modi introduced the Green Credits Initiative, encouraging global adoption. This market-based mechanism incentivises actions with green credits for projects such as water conservation and afforestation.

India’s efforts to address climate change have been ranked as the fourth strongest in the latest annual performance index released by Germanwatch, a non-governmental organisation based in Bonn. The assessment highlighted India’s commendable performance in GHG reduction and energy use. Additionally, India received a medium rating for its climate policy and the deployment of renewable energy.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), a Paris-based autonomous intergovernmental organisation, meeting global net-zero pathways necessitates India increasing its renewable installed capacity to approximately 570 GW by 2030. Achieving this ambitious target would require additional financing of $101 billion — $68 billion for solar, $8 billion for wind, $14 billion for storage and $11 billion for transmission capacity additions. These figures are in addition to the funds needed for tripling the existing capacity. Consequently, the total investment in this scenario is estimated to be around $394 billion (approximately Rs 32 lakh crore). Given India’s positive track record in renewable energy, these targets appear both motivating and feasible.

Voluntary Pledges

Some of the other noteworthy salient features, even though voluntary pledges made outside the formal COP processes, are:

• Advancements were made regarding the new Collective Quantified Goal, an extension of the $100 billion commitment made by developed nations to aid mitigation and adaptation projects in developing nations. It’s essential to highlight that the $100-billion objective has not been achieved, representing a shortfall in the necessary funding. Nevertheless, during COP, there was a consensus to establish a post-2025 finance target in preparation for COP29.
• Around 50 companies, collectively responsible for more than 40% of global oil production, committed to attaining zero methane emissions by 2030 and achieving net-zero GHG emissions by 2050. In parallel, 52 countries took the Global Cooling Pledge, pledging a significant 68% reduction in global cooling emissions by 2050. At present, cooling activities account for almost 7% of global emissions.
• For the first time, COP dedicated a day to health concerns. A declaration, supported by over 120 countries, underscored the profound impact of climate change on human health and well-being.
• Negotiators concentrated on carbon markets, aiming to outline the supervision of credit markets and the accounting methods for various types of credits. Regrettably, no consensus was reached, resulting in unresolved questions about the permanence of declared reductions/removals that will need attention at COP29. This outcome is disheartening for those advocating the establishment of resilient and integrity-focused carbon markets.
• Under the leadership of the United States, a coalition of 22 countries, including France, the UK, Japan, Canada, South Korea and Ukraine, pledged to collaborate in advancing a global aspirational goal of tripling nuclear energy capacity from 2020 to 2050. The International Atomic Energy Agency announced the initiation of a ground-breaking Nuclear Energy Summit in Brussels, scheduled for March, aimed at deliberating on the contributions of nuclear energy in reducing fossil fuel usage.

The Dubai COP, perhaps the largest in history, resulted in significant milestones in agreements on loss and damage and a resolute commitment to shift away from fossil fuels. Nevertheless, upon closer examination, a considerable portion of the accord appears to be incremental in nature. Given the pressing urgency of the current moment, amidst the hottest year on record, substantial strides are imperative, and mere small steps fall short of the requisite magnitude.

Nevertheless, world leaders, corporate entities, climate negotiators, and activists gathered for another endeavour to pursue that objective, maintaining a flicker of hope by pledging to undertake a more robust and impactful climate action in the immediate future. The true gauge of COP28’s influence will inevitably be seen in its effect on public and private investment strategies across countries in the years ahead. The future of these pledges lies in Baku (Azerbaijan) which will host COP29, and Brazil as host of COP30. Similarly, COP31 is most likely to be held in Australia in 2026. The 2027 host is not yet clear, but PM Modi has proposed hosting COP33 in India in 2028 as a reassurance of the concerns for global progress on climate change.