The upcoming Karnataka elections in May will be the semi-finals for the BJP and the Congress
By Sana Zulfikar Ahmed, Dr Karamala Areesh Kumar
Hyderabad: The upcoming Karnataka elections on 10 May 2023 will be the semi-finals for the BJP and the Congress before they go for national elections. A series of visits by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the Hijab issue, religious polarisation, Bharat Jodo Yatra, reservation politics and price rise has drawn the country’s attention towards the State election.
All three major parties – the BJP, the Congress and the JD(S) – are participating in yatras and meetings with their agenda and ideology to win the voter’s confidence. However, there are five significant factors which can influence the voting behaviour and patterns of the people of Karnataka when they hit the EVM button.
Personality Cult
BJP’s Narendra Modi and BS Yediyurappa, Congress’ Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar, JD(S)’ Deve Gowda and Kumaraswamy are popular personalities who can influence voters. Modi’s frequent visits to the State were a much required boost after the government faced anti-incumbency and corruption charges. Even though Modi campaigned similarly during the 2018 elections, the BJP could not manage to win with a clear majority.
In this context, BS Yediyurappa will be a central face of the BJP with his core Lingayat community support. The ‘Vijay Sankalpa Yatra’, which started with national leaders Amit Shah, Rajnath Singh and JP Nadda, covered around 224 constituencies by targeting Hindu vote banks, including Lingayats, Vokkaligas, SCs and STs.
Siddaramaiah is the strongest opposition personality, who enjoys the support of minorities, backward classes, Dalits, Muslims and the Kuruba community. He was also successful in reaching out to common people through Congress’ agenda and policies such as Gruha Jyoti (200 units of free power to all households), Gruha Lakshmi (Rs 2,000 monthly assistance to the woman head of every family) and Anna Bhagya (10 kg of rice free to every member of a BPL household) during Praja Dhwani Yatra and Bharat Jodo Yatra.
Similar schemes, including Ksheera Bhagya, Anna Bhagya, Housing, Indira Canteen, farmers loan waiver and irrigation projects, mobilised common people to vote for the Congress in the previous election. Siddaramaiah is aiming to capture power by announcing similar social security policies during the Praja Dhwani Yatra. He has also emerged as a strong face for the Congress by attacking Prime Minister Modi and criticising BJP’s policies of communalism, acche-din and demonetisation.
Deve Gowda of JD(S) is another popular personality who can change the dynamics of upcoming elections in the State. He is still the dominant leader of the Vokkaliga community. The JD(S) has attracted voters with its five-policy agenda of irrigation and farmer issues; job creation for youth and women empowerment; health; housing and education during its Pancharatna Yatra.
Arvind Kejriwal, the National Convener for Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), can also be a choice in the upcoming elections. After winning the elections of Delhi and Punjab, Kejriwal is aiming at the Karnataka elections to enter the South. The recent national party status to AAP will also influence its performance in the upcoming elections.
Religious Polarisation
Karnataka has witnessed religious tensions and a communal divide before the upcoming election. Events including the cow slaughter ban, anti-conversion Bill, banning hijab, boycotting Muslim businesses and controversy over Tipu Sultan Jayanti have divided voters of the State based on religious politics.
The region of Coastal Karnataka has emerged as a stronghold for right-wing organisations like the VHP, RSS and the BJP. Communal clashes between Hindus and Muslims in Mangalore are also a significant factor that may tilt the balance.
Caste and Reservation
Historically, caste is always one of the significant determinants of elections in Karnataka. Each political party in the State is supported by a certain caste-based vote bank. The Congress is supported by marginalised and backward castes, including, Dalits, Tribal and OBCs. The secular manifesto of the Congress also attracts Muslim, Christian and other minority votes.
Similarly, the BJP is supported by the dominant castes of Karnataka. However, the recent politics over reservation, including the removal of 4% reservation of the Muslim community, hike in reservation for Vokkaligas and Pachamasali, and the Banjara community demand for internal reservation is likely to influence the secular Hindu voting behaviour.
Corruption
Karnataka witnessed the lynching and killing of Dalit Muslims, human rights activists and journalists in the past during elections, which did not influence the voting patterns.
But this election, the involvement of BJP leaders and representatives in corruption may lead to anti-incumbency. The opposition is successful in campaigning against the corrupt activities by terming it as 40% government. BJP leaders were blamed for demanding a 40% commission from contractors. Social media memes and posts like ‘QR Code-Pay CM’ went viral on the corruption allegations against the government.
Adani Row
The Hindenburg report on Adani Group stock manipulation shook the economy and the industrial sector. The controversy over Adani’s assets and his relation with the BJP government dominated the Budget session of Parliament leading to its total washout. Opposition parties blamed the BJP government for its nexus with the Adani group.
Opposition leaders, including Rahul Gandhi and Mahua Moitra, questioned the relationship between Modi and Gautam Adani. The opposition parties blamed the BJP and its allied governments in different States for favouring and handing over national resources to the Adani group.
Social media played a very significant role in linking Modi’s name with Adani. The silence of the Prime Minister on the Adani issue will also affect the common voter’s behaviour.