The rebel phenomenon is more pronounced in the ruling BJP and its strategy to poach Congress leaders boomeranged as it could not accommodate them.
By Rakesh Lohumi
Will the politically aware electorate of Himachal Pradesh maintain the decades-old tradition of voting out the incumbent regime or repose confidence in the ruling BJP in the ensuing Assembly poll? The ‘vexatious’ question has been haunting psephologists and political observers in the changed political scenario, and the answer will be provided by the 55-lakh electorate, who will exercise their franchise on November 12.
The BJP is going to the polls with all guns blazing to break the tradition of ‘change’ the State has been witnessing since 1985. The party is entering the electoral arena with the slogan ‘Rivaj Badlega’, to emphasise that the tradition will be broken. It is a tough call as no party has been able to retain power and the two mainstream parties, the Congress and the BJP, have been taking turns in ruling the State. The Congress won in 1993, 2003 and 2012. The BJP triumphed in 1990, 1998, 2007 and 2017.
Anti-incumbency Factor
The anti-incumbency factor has been playing a decisive role in the hustings all through. In 1997, Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh went for a snap poll hoping to take advantage of the rift in the opposition BJP, which was vertically divided between Shanta Kumar and PK Dhumal factions, but the Congress still lost. Sukh Ram’s newly formed Himachal Vikas Congress (HVC) bagged five seats and helped the BJP form a coalition government.
The tradition of change is weighing heavily on the minds of BJP’s poll managers and for good reasons. The Congress made a clean sweep of three Assembly seats and the Mandi Lok Sabha seat to which the by-election was held a year ago. The complete washout of the BJP came as a rude shock to the leadership and cadres. The defeat in Mandi, the home district of Chief Minister Jai Ram Thakur, came as a big embarrassment. This severely jolted the party as it lost to an enfeebled, divided and dispirited Congress. The Congress was upbeat and the BJP demoralised. However, Assembly elections in five States held early this year have changed the situation. The decimation of the Congress in Punjab, Goa, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh left its cadres shell-shocked and the party lost the psychological edge it had gained over the BJP.
The winning performance has energised the BJP. The party has coined slogans like ‘Naya Rivaj Banayenge, Phir Bhajapa Layenge’ and ‘Jan Jan Ki Yehi Awaj, Badlega Rivaj”’. The ruling BJP has been in election mode for the past one year and Thakur has been announcing sops to woo the electorate.
Star campaigner Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed a string of public meetings and launched several mega projects with an eye on the ensuing polls. He laid the foundation stone for a bulk drug park, flagged off Amb Andaura-Delhi Vande Bharat Express train, the first in the region, and inaugurated Indian Institute of Information Technology at Una. He also inaugurated AIIMS in Bilaspur and laid the foundation stone for the 48-Mw Chanju-III and 30-Mw Deothal Chanju hydropower projects in Chamba. He also launched Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana-III.
Whether these efforts will help the party retain power or the Congress will wrest power as per the past trends will be known on December 8.
AAP’s Chances
The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which is making its electoral debut in the State, has also fielded candidates in most of the constituencies, but it is going to be a fight between the BJP and the Congress. Bolstered by its massive victory in neighbouring Punjab, AAP had been eying Himachal but the abject lack of an organisational network put paid to its plans. It is now mainly focusing on Gujarat where it stands a better chance. However, in a close electoral battle, every vote counts and the presence of AAP candidates can play spoilsport for the main contenders in some seats. The State has been witnessing keen contests and many seats are decided by margins of less than a thousand votes.
The division of anti-incumbency votes helps the ruling party and hurts the opposition. In the 2017 Assembly poll, the absence of regional parties like the HVC and the HLP (Haryana Lokhit Party) helped the BJP as there was no division of anti-incumbency vote. The vote share of the Congress saw a meagre decline – from 42.81% in 2012 to 41.7% – but its tally of seats plummeted from 36 to 21. The BJP cornered all the anti-incumbency votes to improve its vote share from 38.47% to 48.8%, securing 44 out of the total 68 seats, 18 more than the 26 seats it won in 2012.
Role of Rebels
The scenario that has emerged after the distribution of tickets makes it obvious that it will not be a cakewalk for the BJP. AAP may matter only in a couple of seats; it is the presence of a large number of rebels, which is giving sleepless nights to the main rivals.
The party’s strategy to poach Congress leaders boomeranged as it could not accommodate them. It has already expelled six unrelenting rebels for six years and there are more than a dozen seats in Kangra, Kulu, Mandi and Bilaspur districts where rebels may influence the poll outcome. The Congress is better off as rebels can dent its vote in only a handful of seats.
In its efforts to counter anti-incumbency, the BJP shifted some sitting MLAs to adjoining seats. Forest Minister Rakesh Pathania was shifted from Nurpur to Fatehpur, Urban Development Minister Suresh Bhardwaj from Shimla to Kasumpti and Ramesh Dhwala from Jwalamukhi to Dehra.
It also compromised on ‘privarvad’ and gave tickets to family members of sitting legislators. In the Dharampur segment, Irrigation and Public Health minister Mohinder Singh was replaced by his son Rajat Thakur; in Chamba, Neelam Nayyar, wife of sitting MLA Pawan Nayyar, and in Barsar, Maya Sharma, wife of former BJP MLA, were given tickets. It also nominated Chetan Bragta, son of late Narinder Bragta, from the Kotkhai seat. He was denied a ticket from the seat in the by-election on the grounds that the party was against promoting political dynasties.
Parivarvad has not been an issue with the Congress and it did not hesitate to give tickets to its veteran leader Kaul Singh from Drang and his daughter Champa Thakur from Mandi. It also fielded RS Bali, son of late GS Bali, from Nagrota, and Bhawani Singh, son of late Sujan Singh, from Fatehpur.