US Polls: Young voters play key role in Biden’s surge

According to CIRCLE’s estimates, youth turnout was much higher in the 2020 election than in 2016

Hyderabad: Four days after Election Day in the United States, though a final, official result is yet to be declared, one thing is emerging clear, according to election analysts. And that is the fact that the voter turnout is of historic proportions, and then, that youth are deciding which way the narrative could head in many places.

As for the voter turnout, according to Dr Meena Bose, Executive Dean of Public Policy and Public Service Programs, Director of the Center for Study of the American Presidency at Hofstra University, the 2020 general election, had already registered a record turnout of close to 94 million votes, three days before the election itself. Once the final figures come out, she believes, the turnout could be 150 million or more, compared to the approximately 138 million ballots cast in 2016.

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“Absentee ballots are expected to triple from what they were in 2016, from less than a quarter to possibly close to three quarters. And for the first time in American history, more votes are likely to be cast before the election than on Election Day. Whether by absentee ballot, or by early voting,” Dr Bose told journalists during a briefing for the ‘Elections 2020: Virtual Reporting Tour’ organised by the US Department of State’s Foreign Press Centers.

On the other hand, youth votes, just as they were expected to, are playing a crucial role. According to a report released on November 5 by the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning & Engagement (CIRCLE), the youth vote (ages 18-29) has the potential to decide the presidency in the US. A November 6 report from CIRCLE says the turnout of the youth itself is making records.

“According to CIRCLE’s exclusive estimates, youth turnout was much higher in the 2020 election than in 2016. Our calculations based on votes counted as of November 6 suggest that 49-51 per cent of voting-eligible young people, aged 18-29, cast a ballot in the 2020 presidential election. Using the same methodology and data from the same point in 2016, we had previously estimated that youth voter turnout in 2016 was 42-44 per cent. In addition, we are projecting that once all votes are counted, youth turnout may rise to 53 to 56 per cent. Our 2016 projection based on the same data was that youth voter turnout that year would be 45%-48%. It’s notable that even the early youth turnout estimate for 2020 is higher than the projected estimate from 2016,” it says.

In the earlier report, the centre said that even while votes were still being counted in most States across the country, the 2020 election has come down to a handful of key States, some of which are yet to be called.

“As they have been in previous elections, the youth vote has the potential to shape the outcome in these States and to decide the presidency of the United States,” it says.

The CIRCLE report quotes data from the National Election Poll exit polls and the AP VoteCast data from the Associated Press, and says in Pennsylvania youth made up 13 per cent of the vote and supported Biden by +23. In Michigan, youth made up 15 per cent of the vote and supported Biden by +24. In North Carolina, youth constitutes 16 per cent of the vote and supported Biden by +16. As for Georgia, it was 21 per cent and supported Biden by +14. In Wisconsin, youth contributes 14 per cent of the vote and supported Biden by +19 while in Arizona, it was 17% of the vote and supported Biden by +24.

As of November 5, of the States above, only Arizona has been called with Biden winning the State and making it clear that his victory there was powered by youth, the report says.

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