Editorial: Cagey about Covid deaths

India may have every reason to dispute the methodology adopted by the World Health Organisation (WHO) for calculating the number of Covid deaths in the country but it is an undeniable fact that the Centre had bungled the handling of the pandemic during the second wave. There can be no dispute that the ruling dispensation […]

India may have every reason to dispute the methodology adopted by the World Health Organisation (WHO) for calculating the number of Covid deaths in the country but it is an undeniable fact that the Centre had bungled the handling of the pandemic during the second wave. There can be no dispute that the ruling dispensation at the Centre had displayed shocking complacency and freely allowed political rallies last summer despite warnings from experts that the impact of the second wave could be deadly. While the first wave saw India struggling with grossly inadequate healthcare infrastructure, shortage of ICU beds and oxygen cylinders, the second wave proved to be much more disastrous in terms of casualties. Negligence and complacency worsened the situation, leading to preventable deaths. The latest WHO report indicts India and other countries for failing to give an accurate picture. According to the report, there were 4.7 million deaths in India — 10 times the official figures and almost a third of the total Covid deaths globally. WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has rightly described the latest figure as “sobering”, saying it should prompt the nations to invest more in their healthcare capacities to quell future health emergencies. The UN health body said nearly 15 million people were killed either by the coronavirus or by its impact in the past two years. This figure is more than double the official death toll of 6 million. Arriving at accurate numbers on Covid-19 deaths has been problematic throughout the pandemic because of the limited testing and the differences in how countries count Covid-19 deaths.

The WHO figures are based on country-reported data and statistical modelling but it did not break down the figures to distinguish between direct Covid deaths and others caused by the pandemic. One of the key lessons the coronavirus pandemic has taught the policymakers around the world pertains to the importance of reliable and accurate data. The absence of such an ecosystem leads to faulty policy framing with disastrous consequences. India does not have an authentic data ecosystem. The horrific second wave could have been averted if the Centre had put in place a fool-proof geotagged database to help epidemiologists predict more effectively the evolution and behaviour of the virus. The biggest lesson is that an open data ecosystem can be life-saving. Given this inadequacy, it is not justified on the part of the Centre to be cagey about the number of Covid deaths in the country. It is also pointless to swiftly denounce WHO’s estimates. One can disagree with the methodology used by the UN health agency to arrive at the figures but it must be based on sound data and scientific reasoning instead of invoking national pride to rubbish its conclusions.

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