Editorial: Robust data ecosystem needed

One of the key lessons the coronavirus pandemic has taught the policymakers around the world pertains to the importance of reliable and accurate data. The absence of such an ecosystem leads to faulty policy framing with disastrous consequences. India is among the countries that do not have an authentic data ecosystem. The horrific second wave […]

One of the key lessons the coronavirus pandemic has taught the policymakers around the world pertains to the importance of reliable and accurate data. The absence of such an ecosystem leads to faulty policy framing with disastrous consequences. India is among the countries that do not have an authentic data ecosystem. The horrific second wave of the pandemic could have been averted if the Centre had put in place a fool-proof geo-tagged database to help epidemiologists predict more effectively the evolution and behaviour of the virus. The biggest lesson is that an open data ecosystem can be life-saving. Given this inadequacy, it is not justified on the part of the Centre to be cagey about the number of Covid deaths in the country. It is also pointless to swiftly denounce the World Health Organization’s estimates for India. Instead, there is a need to take the criticism by the international agencies in our stride and take appropriate corrective steps. The WHO estimates show that India’s death toll is at least four million, almost eight times the official numbers, a figure disputed by the Central government. Globally, it has estimated a total of about 15 million deaths related to the virus by the end of 2021, more than double the official figures reported by countries individually. One can disagree with the methodology used by the UN health agency to arrive at the figures but it must be based on sound data and scientific reasoning instead of invoking national pride to rubbish its conclusions.

It is true that the ‘one size fits all’ approach and the models which are true for smaller countries may not be applicable to India, a country of continental proportions with a population of 1.3 billion and vastly varying climatic conditions. Therefore, estimating national level mortality based on unverified data from only 18 Indian States can be a statistical nightmare. This, however, doesn’t mean that the country’s own estimates are free from errors. There is no doubt that the number of Covid deaths in the country is substantially underestimated. Some independent surveys have put the figure at three million. The official death toll is put at 4.80 lakh at the end of 2021, accounting for 340 deaths per million population. India paid a heavy price for not having good real-time data on deaths, especially during the first wave. That led to complacency and a terrible toll in the second wave. When data quality is poor, uncritical use of data in policymaking is fraught with dangers. The manner in which Central ministers and officials used the flawed Covid data was even more problematic. A majority of them used it to reinforce a misleading message that India was managing the pandemic better than most countries. This led to complacency. Much of the Covid management protocol focused on imposing stringent conditions for recording Covid deaths.

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