Intense third Covid wave unlikely in Telangana

It could end up as a small ripple, say IIT researchers

Hyderabad: A significant third Covid wave with intensity similar to the second wave is unlikely to happen in Telangana, and also in the country, in the immediate future, according to public health officials, epidemiologists and researchers.

The present assessment that a massive Covid third wave is unlikely to take place, at least in the next few months, is due to several factors. So far, there is no hard evidence of the emergence of a new faster spreading mutant or a variant of SARS-CoV-2 that can escape Covid immunity and cause massive surge in cases.

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“At present, there are no indications of third wave in Telangana. Our focus has been to vaccinate as many individuals as possible at the earliest, which will go a long way in containing any new surge in infections. However, people must continue to remain cautious and take precautions,” said Director of Public Health (DPH) Dr G Srinivasa Rao.

In their analysis on third wave, IIT researchers from Kanpur and Hyderabad, who had developed the SUTRA mathematical model for predicting pandemics, had made it clear that the third wave could end up as a small ripple. “Our projections indicate that if there is no significantly faster spreading mutant, then the third wave would be a ripple. And, if there is such mutant, then the third wave could be like the first wave,” Dr Manindra Agrawal of SUTRA said.

Moreover, there might not be many individuals left to get infected in major urban centres like areas under GHMC, Medchal-Malkajgiri and Rangareddy districts. “The ICMR sero-surveillance has indicated that anywhere between 60 per cent and 63 per cent of individuals in Hyderabad and other parts of Telangana already have developed antibodies, indicating that a large population were earlier infected. Moreover, there is a considerable population who are already vaccinated. These factors could play a vital role in diluting the impact of future surge in Covid cases,” officials here said.

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