Opinion: Best of Bharat yet to come

A country with third largest GDP of nearly $3.3 trillion is still grappling with low per capita income of $2,200, but India's largest percentage of arable land makes it resilient and inclusive.

By B Yerram Raju, V Jaganmohan

Several leaders around the globe have come to reconcile that the future belongs to India. Ever since the British left India, struggling from famine and drought, the nation blossomed into the largest democracy and super brain power.

India has captivated the world’s imagination for centuries. China and India competed historically in geographic space, demography, intellect, governance, food, music, culture and economy. The World Economic Forum raised an interesting debate in September – ‘Is infinite growth possible forever on a finite planet?’ We would like to respond to this query regarding India. Yes, India has the potential to grow beyond boundaries for at least another 30 years amidst spiralling inequality.

Visitors to India will be astonished to see the wide roads but populated with vehicles rushing for space unlike the bumpy national highways of the past. Gadgets to midgets are produced in India both for domestic and global use. The country now has triple-digit trillionaires unlike single-digit billionaires of the 20th century. Yet, its poor people equal Indonesia’s population.

When someone says India is a rich nation with poor people, it should be understood as a rich nation with rich pockets and not rich in either oil or gold. If India were to meet even half of its energy and fossil fuel requirements on its own and had gold, superior black gold (coal) reserves, it would take the first rank among the developed nations!

Youthful Nation

India has the biggest advantage in terms of youthful and working-age population when compared to the European Union, China, Japan, the US and the rest of the world. It has the largest educational system, now in a spate of reforms, and is a factory of software engineers for the world. It proved to be the world’s vaccine hub during the pandemic.

It is true that India is among the top three nations in the world with a minimum 100 million population and one mn sqm area, preceded by China and the US. There are only eight nations in the above two parameters. The other five countries are Russia, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and Ethiopia. And these five countries with the exception of Ethiopia have already reached their full economic potential and their population plateaued.

Ethiopia is a basket case. China and the US have already reached a median age of 39 years and 38 years, respectively, as against India’s 27 years. The population growth of China and the US has already reached below replacement rate and there will be negative growth in their population in future with an adverse ratio of working age to non-working senior population together with dwindling internal demand. Too much dysfunctional democracy is a disadvantage for the US and too little political democracy is a disadvantage for China.

So, by default, India has emerged as the most promising economy among the top eight nations in the world in terms of positive youthful (working age) population to non-working age population and economic growth potential for the next four or five decades.

According to the United Nations, India has been fast changing its birth rate from 45 per thousand in 1965 to less than 20 in 2021. However, its debt to GDP ratio is on the rise, causing a huge concern because every newborn will have their share of debt right in the womb.

Need a Revisit

India has 8,000 years of civilisation. Remarkably, there is polarisation of castes in all the legislatures and Parliament. It is proof of state conquering age-old caste discrimination, save the occurrence of sporadic events. Reservation in education and employment for 75 years is a social constraint in this large democracy with a youthful population. They have done enough good but perhaps need a revisit.

A country with the third largest gross domestic product (GDP) of nearly $3.3 trillion is still grappling with a low per capita income of $2,200. But it has the largest percentage of arable land and capacity to produce every food item that the world anywhere produces, alongwith wide-ranging soils and climate, and these make it sustainable, resilient, and inclusive. If the farm sector, which already stood the test of time during the pandemic, could emulate the Telangana model of development, India can be the food bowl of the world.

Once it comes to terms with the raging inflation and near-global recession and manages its foreign exchange reserves efficiently de-coupling from the dollar economy in the next two to three years, and its 32 million non-resident Indian population mainstreams into the economy with huge investments and turn up as wealth managers, India could also become an iconic manufacturing nation of the world.

While the State and national highways have seen remarkable development during the last 15 years, its villages and towns still crave for smooth roads and affordable transportation. The rail, sea, waterways, and air network that is also fast developing to touch the cities and towns would make India the preferred tourist destination.

It has only 4% of the world’s water resources catering to 17% of the world’s population. Efficient management of these resources is a challenge. Its target of zero emission year 2050 with schemes like Telangana’s Haritha Haram will be within the reach as all the States, irrespective of political differences, are striving to reach the goal.

Financial regulatory architecture is fast getting integrated through sandboxes and account aggregators. Digital payments have taken the width but not the depth because of the nature and quantum of cybercrimes. The recent draft on Mobile Payment Systems’ regulation will put the country on a secure global cybermap.

India’s recent FDI performance is no insurance for the future as forex resources and trade imbalances in the context of recession in Europe, Japan and the USA are worrisome. The best of India is yet to come and what we have achieved in the last 75 years has been only a net practise. Environment and sustainability are in favour of India for the next five decades if it can improve governance and eliminate corruption. Diversity in body politics will add to the optimistic narrative.