Opinion: Dangers of delimitation

The process of delimitation has the potential to cultivate the narrative of separatism in the southern States

Dr Mahesh Manikya

In a country plagued by political self-interests and ideological divisions, the forthcoming Lok Sabha delimitation process has become a hot topic of discussion. Scheduled to take place in 2026, this process, based solely on population, has raised concerns, particularly for the southern States. These States, once at the forefront of implementing strict population control measures to aid the nation in combating its population burden, now find themselves grappling with the consequences of their success.

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Over the past three decades, the southern States have made remarkable strides in various human development indices, including effective population control measures. Their experience in implementing large-scale welfare schemes, aligned with the new economic policies introduced after 1990, has led to significant improvements in human resources quality and societal changes in the industrial infrastructure sector. The southern States have emerged as beacons of progress, epitomising the spirit of population control slogans like ‘We two – we are two, One is enough – two is the limit,’ which once galvanised the nation and propelled their respective States forward.

Regressive Governance

The delimitation exercise in India has a history that dates back to 1952 when the first major exercise took place before the country’s first general elections. Since then, delimitation exercises have been conducted in 1963, 1973, 2002, and 2008. Notably, after 2002, delimitation did not increase the number of seats in the Lok Sabha due to constitutional limitations and the complexities involved in ensuring fair representation based on uneven population growth across States.

The delimitation process, initially scheduled for 2002, was postponed for 2026 based on the then census. This may result in a severe disparity in Lok Sabha seat numbers between the northern and southern States due to population control and other human development indicators of each State. Neglecting this widening gap and moving forward with the delimitation process based on mere population statistics would be akin to embracing regressive governance standards and rewarding underperforming governments.

Notably, intellectuals from political parties in the southern States have already begun voicing their concerns. It is believed this discussion will be crucial in shaping the outcome of this issue post-2026.

BJP’s Political Interests

However, the central government, under the leadership of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has a track record of making decisions without consulting political parties or relevant sections of society, often prioritising its ideology and political interests. From demonetisation to the implementation of a unified tax system and the repeal of Article 370, as well as the contentious new farm laws, numerous decisions have been made in favour of its political ideology or majoritarianism, disregarding the country’s diverse needs.

Similarly, the BJP seems poised to forge ahead with its plan to increase Lok Sabha seats, potentially exacerbating the existing gap between the North and South. The party is likely eyeing States like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat for a significant increase in seats, leveraging its political future and potential majoritarian decision-making power. It is worth noting that the BJP’s attempts to gain a foothold in the South have largely been unsuccessful, as evident for decades.

To capitalise on the demographic advantage that an increase in Lok Sabha seats would provide, the BJP may put forth various arguments in support of the delimitation process. These could include constitutional requirements for equitable representation based on population growth, one person and one vote value, and the promise of enhanced services to the people. Nevertheless, it is crucial to note that the Constitution has been amended 105 times since independence to ensure equal opportunities for all citizens. Relying solely on the population as the basis for increasing seats may lead to gross injustice against the southern States, especially if the delimitation commission’s guidelines are not altered.

New Approach

Hence, it is imperative to adopt a new approach that ensures representation for all the States in Parliament. Until then, the central government should focus on implementing population control methods in the northern States and conduct awareness programmes to sensitise the populace. Additionally, a partial solution could involve increasing the number of Lok Sabha seats in proportion to the existing ratio, irrespective of population growth. Currently, mountainous areas have parliamentary constituencies with lesser voters compared with urban or other regions of the country. Therefore, if seats are massively increased in the North based on population, it is only fair that the South receives a proportional increase without disturbing the present overall State representation.

However, given the present central government’s track record of prioritising political interests and discriminating against southern States in terms of funding and project allocations, there is little hope that the concerns of the South will be adequately addressed. Consequently, political parties in the region must intensify their efforts to exert continuous pressure on the Centre, transcending their political affiliations and agendas. It is crucial to establish a dedicated committee or study group that can provide meaningful recommendations and alternative solutions, which should be submitted to the central government with an unwavering determination to ensure their implementation.

The central government’s potential implementation of the delimitation process, without taking into account the concerns of the southern States, could have significant implications for the cooperative structure of the country. Since Independence, various regions in India have grappled with separatist narratives and movements against the nation. However, the southern part of India has remained strongly integrated within the Indian Union, upholding its true federal structure. This region has consistently demonstrated a lack of anti-Indian sentiments and movements. If the proposed delimitation proceeds without adequately addressing the concerns of the well-developed southern States, it has the potential to sow the seeds of separatist sentiments among the people of these States.