By B Sambamurthy Let it be said at the outset, loud and clear. India can be proud of its achievements in the past 75 years. India shall be grateful to all the freedom fighters and Prime Ministers, from Jawaharlal Nehru to Narendra Modi, for their service to the nation and the progress under their careful […]
By B Sambamurthy
Let it be said at the outset, loud and clear. India can be proud of its achievements in the past 75 years. India shall be grateful to all the freedom fighters and Prime Ministers, from Jawaharlal Nehru to Narendra Modi, for their service to the nation and the progress under their careful care since Independence. No doubt, each of the regimes came with its own flavours and preferences. Mahatma Gandhi comes on a different frame and pedestal altogether.
Having born one year after Independence, I have memories that are etched in my mind over 74 years, which are hard to erase. Let me share a few.
Political Unity – Most Understated Achievement
The most understated political and social achievement of India is its ability to remain united, come rain or sunshine. Historian Ramachandra Guha once said that if India were to be a startup in 1947, no one would fund it. Such was the dire prognosis of India’s survival as a nation given massive poverty, illiteracy, diversity and the chaotic conditions in the early years. But today, India is beaming with startups and is an attractive destination for global investors. The change is so profound. There are several hits and misses in India’s arduous journey of 75 years.
Even small countries like Yugoslavia (population of 23 million), Czechoslovakia (population of just 15 million) have splintered into several small independent countries. Not to say of the massive USSR. Pakistan is another case. Their authoritarian regimes could not save the unity of these countries.
Unlike our neighbour, we did not fortuitously mix, politics, religion and military dictatorship. India overcame several threats to its unity and integrity. The seeds sown by freedom fighters have not gone in vain.
From Ship to Mouth to Feeding the World
From ravages of acute food shortage in the early years, India now has surplus foodgrains exporting to over 100 countries. From the ignominy of literally dependent on the US mercy for food under PL480, we have progressed to a situation when the world protested when we temporarily halted exports to their countries.
As a teenager, I very well recall having listened to (from our tabletop radio), mild-mannered and sober Prime Minister Lal Bahadur Shastri’s appeal to Indians (1964-65) to skip at least one meal in a week so as to save the scarce food amid the Indo-Pak war. People responded to this call without any murmur.
Milk Billions Far More Impactful than UPI Billions
Amid this crisis, Lal Bahadur Shastri’s initiatives like the Green revolution and the White (milk) revolution are serving our needs even today and have ensured food security. India is the largest producer of milk and the second largest producer of wheat and rice. India long ago tasted billion scale in milk production and now produces around 175 billion litres of milk annually. What a journey from being dependent on global donor supplied milk powder to the world’s largest dairy development project!
In terms of social and economic impact, the green and white revolution mincemeats UPI’s 65-70 billion transaction volume
Dr Verghese Kurien led the milk revolution and Dr MS Swaminathan the Green revolution, which feeds 1.4 billion people a day besides feeding other countries. The political leadership over the last 75 years nurtured and supported these great projects and India can be proud of this. India suffered at least 7 major famines during 75 years prior to Independence but no famine in the last 75 years, except one in some parts of Bihar during 1966.
In terms of social and economic impact, the Green and White revolution mincemeats UPI’s 65-70 billion transaction volume. No offence meant to the National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI) and its unicorns/decacorns. These food and science revolutions whose fruits we are reaping even today after 50-60 years were orchestrated by passionate technocrats. They were not spin doctors or narrative economists. They inspired the Prime Ministers of the day. India needs more of this tribe.
Healthcare
Child mortality has dropped over 70% during the last five decades. Longevity has improved from 35 to 70 years now. Several diseases like smallpox have been eradicated. Polio is nearly eradicated. Communicable diseases like TB are well under control.
India suffered at least 7 major famines during 75 years prior to Independence but no famine in the last 75 years, except one in some parts of Bihar during 1966
Scientific Temper
Massive impoverishment and high levels of illiteracy could not diminish our scientific temper. India embarked on projects like the space mission (1969) and atomic energy (1948); both preserve of 5-6 rich countries. Dr Vikram Sarabhai and Homi J Bhabha provided brilliant leadership.
All Prime Ministers, irrespective of political hues, supported these great scientific projects. In recent times, India has emerged as the vaccine capital of the world. We have witnessed the President of the most powerful and richest country (USA) calling up Prime Minister Modi appealing for the supply of Covid medicines.
Reaching out to Villages
During the last one decade, India has made rapid strides in providing electricity, drinking water and banking facilities through the latest technology across most of the six lakh villages.
Political Bipartisanship: Irreversible Reforms
One often laments the apparent lack of political bipartisanship in matters of vital importance to economic growth. If we dig deeper, it is not difficult to discern bipartisanship, political posturing and grandstanding notwithstanding.
For instance, the economic reforms of 1991, unleashed by the PV Narasimha Rao and Dr Manmohan Singh duo, have not been reversed by any subsequent warring political groups. So also Golden Quadrilateral, the massive infrastructure development project, initiative by the Vajpayee government. There are several other instances like Aadhaar, GST, financial inclusion and MNERGA, though initiated under one government, which have been/are taken to logical conclusion by an opposing government. Shape, structure, speed, process and flavours may differ, but that does not matter much. Political parties may score brownie points for progress in these areas on their watch and they are entitled to it.
Of course, it is not to dismiss whataboutery and mutual blame game. Winning elections and seats of power at any cost will damage the democratic polity and governance and this has been troubling over the last four decades. Realpolitik is no substitute for real politics (of citizenry).
IT Superpower
The five-million-strong IT sector has made remarkable progress and has been one of the fastest growing sectors after the 1991 reforms. India is known for global delivery models and provides high-quality employment. The IT sector offers huge promise in our goal of reaching $30 trillion in the next 25 years. The UPI has reset the digital payments ecosystem across the globe.
Next 25 years
But is it all hunky dory? Have we already arrived? Absolutely no. India aspires to attain a $25/30 trillion economy in the next 25 years. One cannot fault this legitimate aspiration.
Reform of Rural Sector
Reforms that we have seen in manufacturing and services sectors, particularly agriculture, eluded the 600-million-strong rural sector due to the absence political bipartisanship. Both farmers and consumers are paying a price for the lack of much-needed consensus. Reforms are essential to achieve $5 trillion in the short term and $30-trillion in the long run.
Reforms that we have seen in manufacturing and services sectors, particularly agriculture, have eluded the 600-million-strong rural sector
Underutilised Human Capital
Huge unemployment is a scourge. We have been talking about the huge demographic dividend over the last 20-30 years but progress has been tardy. Firstly, providing employment, self-employment to all working-age population is not a welfare measure but an essential component of economic management and a social contract between the citizen and the state.
Secondly, huge unemployment, underemployment is a waste of abundant human resources of the country. It is vital for us to grow our economy to $30 trillion as aspired. Our per capita income needs to increase at least 10 times in the next 25 years. Our labour force participation rate has been on the decline over the last two decades. It needs to grow from 40% to at least 70%. Women’s participation rate is abysmally low at around 10- 20% and this needs to be enhanced to at least 50-60%.
Education Standards
The low quality of education is another cause of worry. Several studies by independent agencies point out to the low learning outcomes, particularly numeracy, language and communication skills in government schools. Many college graduates are unemployable. Vocational training despite several initiatives has not gained traction and the recent PLFS survey shows that 84% did not get any vocational training.
The quality of education needs a major enhancement. We have a huge contradiction of low level of labour participation on one hand and shortage of skilled labour and professionals on the other. Improvement in learning outcomes is the only way forward. Apprentice scheme and vocational training need a step improvement. Mere increase in Gross Enrolment Ratio is not enough.
Teacher promotions must be largely guided by learning outcomes and incentives may be provided. Non-performing private colleges need to be weeded out. Industry, academia need deeper engagement and the interface needs to be made mandatory. Collaboration with NGOs like EKSTEP helps faster adoption of new digital pedagogy and million scale. Civil society and government (less bureaucracy please) must create a pool of senior citizens with vast experience in varied fields as volunteers to lend a helping hand. Many senior citizens are keen to help.
Civil society and government must create a pool of senior citizens with vast experience in varied fields as volunteers to lend a helping hand. Many senior citizens are keen to help.
How did Indians Fare?
Nandan Nilekani in his book Imagining India says “It is impossible to frame a single picture of India. The reality of India depends on where you stand.”
The answer depends on who you ask. The top five crore people enjoy living standards nearly comparable to the well-to-do in developed countries. The next 10 crore have achieved comfortable living standards on a par with the middle-class in developed countries. The next 10 crore people manage to meet both ends with extra effort and 40 crore people may be estimated to be living on margins.
There is no clear picture of how 30 crore citizens earn and make a living. This is not acceptable in any civilised society. These numbers are my estimates in the absence of any reliable data. Our economic model and management at several layers need to be mindful of this so as to make $5/30 trillion dollar more meaningful.
There is no clear picture of how 30 crore citizens earn and make a living. This is not acceptable in any civilised society.
The country has been providing free rations to over 80 crore people to mitigate the impact of Covid on vulnerable sections of society without much pressure on food stocks. These beneficiaries need to be pushed to income earning activities. This helps the GDP grow.
From the ramparts of the Red Fort, the Prime Minister referred to endemic corruption and this is holding back progress. Parents and teachers have a role to play in preparing children with values.
Sense of Humour
We need to regain the sense of humour in politics. I remember as a teenager, we used to have a race to the library to lay our hands first on Shanker’s Weekly. The cartoons brutally lampooned the high and mighty. They were highlighting blind spots on social and political issues. Humour strengthens dialogues and helps save precious judicial resources.
Choice is Clear
Skill levels, employment and rural sector reforms can make or break our aspiration to be a developed country.
Historian Ananya Vajpeyi in her book Righteous Republic: The Political foundations of Modern India, alerts us to the breakdown of socio, political, cultural and religious binaries. These binary pairs include modernity/tradition, secular/religious, Hindu/Muslim, social/transcendental, egalitarianism/inequality, modern political society/pre-modern cultural communities. Our $30 trillion aspiration hinges on how well we handle these binaries. It is not either-or choice. Also, the $30 trillion framework needs to capture the productive work of the bottom 30 crore people to make our growth sustainable. Let me conclude by stating that Prime Minister Modi’s confidence is infectious.
(The author is former Director and CEO of Institute for Development and Research in Banking Technology, [IDRBT], Hyderabad)