Millennials, Gen Z to decide next POTUS
Early votes cast by youth in key States already exceeded the 2016 margin of victory in those States’ presidential race, says report
Hyderabad: The future is in their hands. The youth – the millennials and Gen Z – could play a key role in the November 3 United States polls, with poll analysts and agencies saying that this time, those in the age group of 18 to 29 might decide America’s next President.
According to a report released by the Centre for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE) on October 26, in Florida, North Carolina, Maine, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Michigan, early votes cast by youth have already exceeded the 2016 margin of victory in those States’ presidential race.
“More than five million young people (ages 18-29) have already voted early or absentee in the 2020 elections, including nearly three million in 14 key States that may well decide the presidency and control of the United States Senate,” the CIRCLE report says.
“In every State we’re tracking, the number of absentee and early votes cast as of 11 days before Election Day is far higher than at the same point in 2016. That’s to be expected, given the greater emphasis on mail-in voting this year due to the pandemic. Still, the numbers are especially dramatic in a State like Texas, where more than 7,50,000 young people have already cast ballots. In fact, with more than a week of early voting and Election Day still to go, young people have already cast almost two-thirds as many early votes in Texas as they did in total in the 2016 presidential election,” the report says, adding that this highlights the decisive impact young voters may have in the Presidential, House and Senate races in these States.
Professor Elizabeth C Matto, who directs the Center for Youth Political Participation (CYPP) at Rutgers University’s Eagleton Institute of Politics, cited the CIRCLE report and told journalists during a briefing for the Elections 2020: Virtual Reporting Tour organised by the US Department of State’s Foreign Press Centres that there were about 10 States, including Florida, North Carolina and Virginia, in which the youth vote, if they turn out, could really impact outcomes.
Historically, she says, youth voter turnout has not been that great in the US. Less than 50 per cent of young adults who have been eligible to vote have actually turned out in presidential elections.
According to US Census Bureau data, only 43 percent of citizens aged 18-24 voted in the 2016 election compared to 61.4 per cent of eligible citizens who voted overall. But now, millennials and in particular, Gen Z, were getting more politically interested, Prof. Matto says.
Almost 5,00,000 students have already cast their ballots in Texas this year. Florida has seen young adults making use of vote by mail. This was quite surprising, given earlier fears that the Covid-19 pandemic might make young people stay away from the polls.
But despite Covid-19, young voters were poised to be a decisive force, she adds, citing a national poll among Americans aged 18 to 29 by the Institute of Politics at Harvard Kennedy School, which found that enthusiasm for voting in 2020 was on par with 2008, a historic election for youth turnout who voted Democrat Barack Obama into the White House. This year, the IoP poll shows Democratic nominee Joe Biden leading Republican President Donald Trump 63 per cent to 25 per cent among young voters most likely to vote.
We will however, have to wait for a couple more months to see how the present enthusiasm works out, how long it sustains itself, and in whose favour.
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