Telangana Polls: Is there a raging battle for Muslim votes?
As Telangana braces for Assembly polls, there is a focus among political analysts on the “minority factor” in these elections, especially the voting behavior of Muslim community
By Syed Amin Jafri
A narrative is tossing around in the social media and political discourse that Muslim votes are going to be split between BRS and the Congress in the current Assembly elections unlike in 2018 when Muslims overwhelmingly voted for TRS (now BRS). The Congress story goes like this: “Muslims want to support Congress because Rahul Gandhi will take on Modi in the Lok Sabha elections next year. Muslims voted for Congress in Karnataka elections recently and they are going to do it here in Telangana now.”
But is it really so? What do the Assembly elections here have to do with Lok Sabha polls in 2024? Is it that the Congress is aping BJP slogan of “Double Engine Sarkar” by telling Muslim (and other) voters to elect their party here now to pave the way for Congress Sarkar at the Centre next year? Do the Congress leaders believe that the prevailing situation for the minorities in Telangana is similar to what they faced in neighbouring Karnataka State under BJP rule? The minorities—both Muslims and Christians—were disgusted with BJP government in Karnataka because they were harassed by Sangh activists on the ground and affected by negative, anti-minority policies of the saffron regime.
As Telangana braces for Assembly polls, there is a focus among political analysts on the “minority factor” in these elections, especially the voting behavior of Muslim community. The Congress leaders claim that “Muslim vote” is crucial in 40 to 45 constituencies out of 119 in the State. They say that Muslim voters have “decided” to back their party, inspired by the Minority Declaration and manifesto promises on the one hand and their “affection” for Rahul Gandhi on the other. As the saying goes, the taste of pudding is in eating.
It is obvious that minority voters play a significant role in the elections. Minorities account for 14 percent of the State’s electorate—12.7 percent Muslims and 1.3 percent Christians. Every 8th voter in the State is a Muslim. Minorities are spread across all the 33 districts of the State, with huge concentration in Hyderabad, Rangareddy, Medchal-Malkajgiri, Vikarabad, Nizamabad, Sangareddy, Adilabad, Nirmal, Mahbubnagar, Kamareddy and Karimnagar districts. Muslims account for 50 to 90 percent of the electors in seven assembly constituencies (all represented by AIMIM), 15 to 50 percent in 22 ACs, 10 to 15 percent in 13 ACs, 5 to 10 percent in 42 ACs and 2 to 5 percent in the remaining 35 ACs.
There is a clamour among Congress leaders to garner Muslim votes in most of the minority-dominated constituencies. On their part, BRS leaders have been making efforts in the last three months to consolidate their support among Muslims and Christians in constituencies with good numbers of minority voters. Of course, the BJP does not need Muslim votes and it is seeking to polarize the voters of the majority community, cutting across all caste groups, in its favour to turn the tables on its rivals.
While the two major contending parties are seeking to corner a bulk of Muslim votes, there are not even a handful of Muslim candidates contesting on behalf of these two parties outside the seven Assembly constituencies (represented by AIMIM). Congress has fielded six Muslim candidates, including four in the AIMIM-held constituencies and two outside (one in Nizamabad Urban and one in Jubilee Hills). BRS has renominated its sole Muslim MLA from Bodhan, apart from its Muslim candidates in two Old City constituencies.
BJP has no single Muslim nominee in the fray. BSP and other smaller parties have fielded Muslim candidates but they don’t stand a chance. Incidentally, the AIMIM is contesting in 9 constituencies, including Jubilee Hills. It has sponsored a BC (Hindu) candidate in Rajendranagar. The AIMIM is supporting the BRS candidates in the remaining 110 constituencies across the State.
Ironically, the Muslim representation in the Assembly from Telangana is almost stagnant for the last seven decades. Starting with 8 Muslim MLAs from the region in Hyderabad State in 1951, the number has hovered between 7 to 8 in the three successive elections (1962, 1967 and 1972) in the region in united Andhra Pradesh. Only five Muslim MLAs were elected in 1978, seven each in 1983 and 1985, six in 1989 and five in 1994. The number remained at seven each in 1999, 2004 and 2009. The number rose to 8 each in 2014 and 2018 after formation of Telangana State.
Congress virtually drew a blank with no single Muslim nominee elected on its banner in the last three elections in 2009, 2014 and 2018 from Telangana. TRS (now BRS) has one Muslim member elected in the last two elections. Incidentally, the AIMIM’s tally rose from one in 1962 to 3 each in three successive elections, five in 1983, 4 each in 1985 and 1989, one in 1994 (with two more seats won by its splinter group Majlis Bahao Tahreek), 4 each in 1999 and 2004 and seven seats each in 2009, 2014 and 2018.
