SAS Group survey: Mood of Telangana with BRS

The SAS survey says the BRS is leading with a 42.5 percent vote share, while the Congress was likely to secure 36.5 percent and the BJP could get a 10.75 percent share.

Hyderabad: One more opinion poll on the forthcoming Telangana Assembly elections, this time by the Sri Atmasakshi (SAS) Group known for its near accurate predictions, has said that the ruling Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) is all set to secure a comfortable victory.

The SAS survey says the BRS is leading with a 42.5 percent vote share, while the Congress was likely to secure 36.5 percent and the BJP could get a 10.75 percent share. This was the ground situation shared by the organisation as on October 28, when the Congress party released the second list of 45 candidates.

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In a few seats where there could be close contests, the BRS is leading in three seats, while Congress is leading in two and the BJP in one seat. The Silent Vote Factor (SVF) was noticed to be 1.75 percent in the State. Generally, 80 per cent of the SVF would support the political party that creates confidence and momentum among the public just before the elections, the SAS Group report said.

The organisation has conducted three surveys so far in different time frames. The first survey was conducted from July 18 to August 17, followed by the second survey between August 21 and October 30. The third survey was conducted from October 2 to 28.

The survey was conducted in 110 Assembly constituencies by collecting 2,65,000 samples with 820 enumerators assigned to collect the samples. On an average, 2400 samples were collected from each constituency. The samples were conducted in two methods, including Random and Selective Sampling Method.

The Random and Selective Samples are taken in the ratio of 60:40 respectively. While collecting the selective samples, the SAS Group covered different sections such as farmers and tenant farmers, students, unemployed youth, government and retired government employees, private sector employees, small business traders, wage seekers, home makers, RTC employees and auto drivers, Anganwadi / Aasa / Dwakra workers and others.

Compared to the 2018 results, the organisation’s survey noticed that there was a decline of 4.3 percent in BRS vote share. Yet, the BRS was leading ahead of the Congress and BJP.

Ahead of the 2018 elections, the SAS group had predicted that BRS (then TRS) would win 85 to 89 seats and the party had won 88 seats. Similarly, it had said the Congress would secure 19 to 20 seats and the party won 19 seats. BJP was expected to win one seat and it won only one seat.

In the recent Karnataka elections too, the organisation’s survey had estimated that the BJP would win 83 to 84 seats and it ended up winning 66 seats. Similarly, the Congress was expected to win 117 to 124 seats and it won 135 seats. The JD (S) was predicted to win 23 to 30 seats and ended up winning 19 seats.